Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1154 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE
POPS EARLY ON...BUT STILL THINK LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA LOOKS ON TARGET. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS CAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LI/S DOWN TO THE -4 TO -6
RANGE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. GOOD PWATS AS WELL WILL RESULT IN SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AS WELL. CURRENT HWO HAS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED.
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEEN BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA.
CLEARING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO SLOW THE FRONTS PROGRESS AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS,,,LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON THURSDAY AFTER THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THUS
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET. AT THIS POINT HAVE
FOLLOWED HPCS LEAD USING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH HAS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION AND THUS KEEPS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH. NONETHELESS
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOME TODAY AS TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. IN WAA PATTERN AHD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS LEAD TO MID LEVEL CIGS THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO
OHIO OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATION FOR THESE
INITIAL STORMS WL BE ACRS THE NORTH WHERE MODERATE INSTBY IS
COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO OHIO.
HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN TEMPO GROUPS DURG LATE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS WHEN BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-090900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.