Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
708 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COPIOUS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WENT WITH 100 POPS TONIGHT. AREAS THAT ARE NOT AFFECTED BY LARGE
SWATH OF RAIN MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL VERY LIKELY SEE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH
AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH WITH THE FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY STARTING AT 7
PM. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE FROM AROUND 50 THIS EVENING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S BY 6 AM. LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN LIGHT OF
COLD READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT IN IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT CARRYING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I 70...WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF I 70...WHERE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION
FROM THE CURRENT PROJECTED LOW TRACK WILL AFFECT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND AMOUNT.

KEPT TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE. AFTER A
QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER STRONG H5 CLOSED LOW
CROSSES FROM SE INDIANA AT 12Z FRI TO NE OH BY 18Z FRI...ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 RETURNS QUICKLY...BY FRI NIGHT...AND IS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A WEAK S/W IS NOTED BY
THE GFS LATE SAT AND EARLY SUN...BUT STAYS N OF FCST AREA. ITS NOT
UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE FLOW TURNS SW AND THE MOISTURE STREAMS IN
AHEAD OF A DIGGING L/W TROUGH THAT SPLITS INTO A PROGRESSIVE NRN
AND A STAGNATING/RETROGRADING SRN COMPONENT. EUROPEAN MODEL IS
SHOWING SAME ATTRIBUTES WITH DIFFERING/SLOWER TIMING OF THE FIRST
CLOSED LOW...AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IN SYNC WITH THE L/W
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...PREFER TO STAY AWAY FROM GFS
6Z SOLUTION FOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN. 0Z GFS ENSEMBLES AT
THIS LEVEL ARE SHOWING A HUGE STANDARD DEVIATION OVER MN...HINTING
THAT A SINGLE L/W TROUGH VERSUS THE SPLIT STREAM IS FAVORED. THE 0Z
OPERATIONAL MODEL AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
LEVEL...TELLING ME TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND NOT BEING AS STRONG OR PROGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO TAFS. TRIED TO NARROW THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WITH CDFNT. HAVE IT TO CVG AROUND 02Z AND CMH
04-05Z. COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOW AHEAD OF LINE...BUT FOCUSED ON THE
LINE. ADDED THUNDER TO ALL THE TAFS...EXCEPT CMH/LCK. WASNT SURE
THAT THE THUNDER WOULD HODL TOGEHTER THAT FAR NE.

WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST AND REMAIN STRONG WITH CONTINUED GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WILL
LINGER AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE
ENDING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 2000 FT LATE TNGT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT TOWARD MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS/HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...SITES

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