Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
442 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF AREA IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. EVENT IS
BEING DRIVEN BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH...IN THE PRESENCE OF BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THOUGH
WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK...COOL AIR ALOFT OVER A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NORTH DOWN TO SCATTERED POPS SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN NEXT MID LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO
ARRIVE. KEPT POPS AT HIGH CHANCE. LATER ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVE
SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING PEAK INSTABILITY WHICH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH S/W TROF
PIVOTING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AFTN/EVE. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
EAST WHERE INSTBY AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE BEST. HAVE ALSO CONTD
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY
PERIOD...THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AND THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE
FROM MID WEEK ON.

FLO BACKS WITH WAA THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY WED. HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.

THIS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PIVOT NE THROUGH ILN/S FA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE REGION WARM SECTORED
ON FRIDAY. AS S/W ENERGY TRACKS EAST THRU GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MEX GUID FOR
HIGHS AND A LTL ABOVE GUID WITH THE LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WELL DEFINED MID LVL S/WV MOVING THRU WRN INDIANA ATTM. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DVLP AND EXPAND ACRS NRN 1/2 OF INDIANA AND NW OHIO
IN ADVANCE OF S/WV. S/WV WILL TRACK ACRS NRN FCST AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTN/ERLY EVNG...WITH CONVECTION DVLPG/MIGRATING INTO THE
REGION AFT 20Z. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO PCPN IS EXPECTED ACRS
NRN 1/2 FCST AREA WHERE MID LVL FORCING ASSOCD WITH S/WV WILL BE A
LITTLE BETTER. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A 3-4
HOUR TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN TSRA BY 21Z AND
PERSISTING INTO THE EVNG HOURS. W/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS S/WV
PASSES THRU FCST AREA.

ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID EVNG AS S/WV PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA. WEAK
SFC HI ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH LATE TONIGHT AND MAY PROMOTE A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY CLR SKIES AFT MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THIS AFTN...MVFR VSBYS (IFR AT KLUK) WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SCT CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DVLP BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPCHG S/WV FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND
S/WV WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEYOND 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-OHZ079>082-088-221200-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-
MASON-LEWIS-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
452 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>053-060>062-221200-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
452 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ066-073>075-KYZ091>093-OHZ046-054>056-063>065-070>074-077-078-
221200-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-DELAWARE-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-
WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
452 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

OHZ035-212015-
AUGLAIZE OH-
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AUGLAIZE COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STATE ROUTE
116 AT STATE ROUTE 197 TO 18 MILES WEST OF EGYPT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
KOSSUTH...BULKHEAD...ST. MARYS...BUCKLAND...MOULTON...NEW
KNOXVILLE...EGYPT...NEW BREMEN...CRIDERSVILLE...MINSTER...WAPAKONETA
AND UNIOPOLIS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...
WHICH MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

INZ050-058-059-OHZ034-042-060-212015-
WAYNE IN-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE OH-MERCER OH-PREBLE OH-
320 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PREBLE...
EXTREME SOUTHERN MERCER...DARKE...NORTHERN UNION...NORTHERN FAYETTE
AND WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
DARKE COUNTY TO 9 MILES WEST OF FALMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NORTH
DAYTON...RICHMOND...GREENVILLE...ECONOMY...HAGERSTOWN...NEW WESTON...
BURKETTSVILLE...UNION CITY...CONNERSVILLE...ANSONIA...DUBLIN AND MOUNT
AUBURN. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 FROM THE WAYNE-HENRY COUNTY
BORDER IN INDIANA TO MILE MARKER 14 IN PREBLE COUNTY WILL BE
IMPACTED.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...
WHICH MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD AND AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

RYAN

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