Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
845 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING IN SEVERE ACTIVITY FOR WW 543. LINE OF
SEVERE STORMS TO HIT WESTERN FA THROUGH 11PM. FOR CINCINNATI AREA
AND POINTS EAST...COVERAGE TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN IN MIAMI
VALLEY. LINE TO BE THROUGH ALL OF FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM...WITH SHOWERS AFTERWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRADDLING AREA EARLY MONDAY AND SLOW TO
PROGRESS...KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO AREA. DID LINGER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND INTO TUE NIGHT CLOSED
LOW SKIRTING GREAT LAKES BEFORE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. HAVE GENERALLY GONE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

PESKY UPR LVL LOW WILL BE NEAR SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.  OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW.  WEAK EMBEDDED S/WV ENERGY IS STILL
ADVERTISED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IT IT STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IT WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON CHC/S FOR
PCPN.  HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AFTN/EVENING POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE NE
HALF CWFA WHERE THE BEST CHC FOR A POP UP SHOWER MAY OCCUR.  TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.

UPR LVL LOW WILL FINALLY PIVOT AWAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE ON THURSDAY
TO ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS A RESULT.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING A SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS PARTLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  HAVE PLACED 30 POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH A LINGERING
20 POPS FOR SATURDAY.

NEXT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT UNDER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION OVER INDIANA IS TIMED INTO TAFS BETWEEN 01Z-
03Z. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO LESS STABLE AIRMASS...IT SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER...ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. NRN
TAFS HAS A BETTER CHC OF TSTM...BUT STILL PUT TEMPO TSTM AT
KCVG/KLUK. RIGHT NOW LIMITED THE DURATION TO 2 HRS IN THE N AND AN
HOUR IN THE S.

AFT THAT LINE GOES THRU...WILL WAIT FOR CDFNT THAT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10Z. BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTM WITH THE CDFNT. KEPT THE TSTMS IN THE FCST THRU 15Z...THEN AS
CDFNT PUSHES FAR SE BROUGHT THEM TO AN END.WINDS TURN TO THE NW
BEHIND FNT FOR MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
857 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077>079-170100-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-
WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
857 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KYZ089-090-094>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-080>082-088-
170100-
CARROLL-GALLATIN-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
857 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES FROM THE MIAMI VALLEY AND GREATER CINCINNATI
AREA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
847 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N UNION CITY          40.21N 84.79W
06/15/2008                   DARKE              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT OF FLYING ISOLATION AND PORTA-POTTY TURNED
            OVER.

&&

SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
850 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N UNION CITY          40.21N 84.79W
06/15/2008                   DARKE              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT OF FLYING INSOLATION AND PORTA-POTTY TURNED
            OVER.

&&

SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
909 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW NEW MADISON       39.96N 84.72W
06/15/2008                   DARKE              OH   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TRAILER BLOWN OVER, LOTS OF DEBRIE BLOWING AROUND.

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
913 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. MARYS               40.54N 84.39W
06/15/2008                   AUGLAIZE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8X10 METAL BUILDING PICKED UP AND DROPPED ON PARKED CAR

&&

HUGHES

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