Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
130 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ALL OF THE STORMS ARE
LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH FURTHER STORMS DEVELOPING/PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS
UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE QUICK TOMORROW AND NOT HAVE THE
CHANCE OF ACCESSING ANY DIURNALLY HEATED AIR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. DID NOT INCREASE THE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL AS GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE BEST STORMS WELL NNW OF
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE FROPA PASSING OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND COOL OFF DAYTIME MAXES ON TUESDAY TO JUST THE LOW AND
MID 80S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S.

TEMP GUIDANCE TOMORROW NIGHT WAS TOO WARM FROM FWC AND TOO COLD
PER MAV. THOUGHT THAT THERE WOULD BE A GOOD BIT OF COOLER AIR IN
PLACE BUT COULD NOT DROP READINGS AS LOW AS MAV...DECIDED TO BLEND
THE MET AND CURRENT FCST TO COME IN WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD IS WEIGHTED TOWARD HPCS
SOLUTION WHICH IS TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A SOLUTION BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT FOR THE DAYS 5-7 INCORPORATING A
PERCENTAGE OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL SLIDE TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING A MORE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED GIVEN WEAK BDRY LAYER
FORCING IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INCREASES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BDRY LAYER FORCING INDICATED IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ILN
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT BECAUSE OF CURRENT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE. AFTER LINGERING POPS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CHC
POPS ARE INTRODUCED AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE DAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO KICK OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPO -TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WHEN WE COULD SEE A BIT OF A DIURNAL LULL IN PCPN.
WILL THEN INCLUDE A VCSH AND A CB THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TAF SITES. GOOD DRYING WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...JTD
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-060-102345-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-PREBLE-
745 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-061>065-070>074-077>082-
088-102345-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
745 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 AM     HAIL             SPRINGBORO              39.56N 84.24W
06/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       WARREN             OH   PUBLIC

0207 AM     HAIL             WEST PORTSMOUTH         38.76N 83.03W
06/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       SCIOTO             OH   PUBLIC

&&

HAWBLITZEL

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