River Flood Warning 6, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1227 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA LATE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN FA. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS INDICATING THE TREND TO CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/POPS TO REFLECT MORE OF THIS SLOWER TIMING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW HIGHEST POPS FOR PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN PUSH THEM BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH. ALSO AS BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME NON DIURNAL TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INTO
WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH BEST FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW (AND ALSO GO
AHEAD AND MOVE THE START TIME FOR THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO RIGHT NOW) AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN THERE BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING TROUGH WILL HOLD OFF THE COLDEST AIR FROM GETTING S OF
I-70 CORRIDOR UNTIL WED EVENING WHEN ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK AND BRIEF-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THE LOW ON THURSDAY. A
DISTURBANCE PUSHES NE THROUGH NRN OHVLY THURS NIGHT...BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL MAINLY TO THE NW. ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH THAT WORKS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MARK A TURNING POINT IN THE FORECAST AS THE
EXITING TROUGH GETS REINFORCED IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FLOW TURNS UNIFORMLY NORTHWEST. A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOW IN THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL USHER IN A SHOT OF COLD AIR ON STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS.

PRECIP TYPE COULD BE TRICKY ON SATURDAY AS WARM AIR GETS PULLED IN
AHEAD OF THE LOW...THEN GETS QUICKLY COOLED OFF ON THE BACK SIDE.
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SAT
NIGHT IF WINDS ARE SUSTAINED MORE NORTHWEST AND DONT TURN
WESTERLY AS NOTED. OPTED TO KEEP THIS OUT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF FA...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT TOO MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. AS LOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE AREA OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN LARGE AREA OF PCPN CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. WILL THEREFORE TRY TO SHOW A BREAK IN THE PCPN TONIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF AREAS. AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF IT
AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THIS. WITH IT BEING SO FAR
OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH...WILL JUST COVER IT WITH A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF CB ATTM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL

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