River Flood Warning 43, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN
THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OHIO AND INDIANA.  IN SW OHIO...KY AND SE INDIANA...RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 INCHES...MORE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...WITH
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OBVIOUSLY...RIVER AND AERIAL
FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM...AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AT BEST...BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS WILL NOT DROP VERY MUCH FROM
CURRENT TEMPS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NE.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL BUMP
TO TEMPS...FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SNOW SHOWERS WORK
IN...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE COLD
TEMPERATURE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MORE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO. THERE CLOUD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW PUSHING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
IN NW OHIO...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH 12Z GFS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...DISTURBANCES
TRAVELING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE
FOR MORE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

GENERALLY RAISED GRIDDED MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TOWARD WARMER MEX.
WITH LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT READINGS TO STAY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WHICH WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL TROF AND SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z TO PRODUCE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCVG AND
KLUK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS  CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE WAVE OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 30 KNOTS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 22Z...BUT WILL BEGIN TO
MIX WITH SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z AS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
PIVOTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
SCATTER...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-190915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
509 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THEIR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-190915-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
509 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THEIR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON.

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
248 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     FLOOD            3 SW FARMERSVILLE       39.65N 84.47W
03/19/2008                   MONTGOMERY         OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ANTHONY ROAD CLOSED IN GERMAN TOWNSHIP DUE TO HIGH WATER.
            NUMEROUS ROADS WITH HIGH WATER COUNTYWIDE.

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
253 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     FLOOD            XENIA                   39.69N 83.94W
03/19/2008                   GREENE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS CLOSED COUNTYWIDE DUE TO STANDING HIGH WATER.

&&

SFH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
305 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     FLOOD            CARROLLTON              38.68N 85.16W
03/19/2008                   CARROLL            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 36 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. MANY ROADS
            COUNTYWIDE HAVE HIGH WATER.

&&

ALANR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
307 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     FLOOD            WARSAW                  38.79N 84.89W
03/19/2008                   GALLATIN           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ACROSS NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS.

&&

ALANR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
309 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            1 SW HIGHLAND HEIGHTS   39.03N 84.47W
03/18/2008                   CAMPBELL           KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A ONE MILE STRETCH OF THE AA HIGHWAY WAS CLOSED NEAR
            INTERSTATE 275 FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 7 PM DUE TO
            FLOODING...WITH UP TO 3 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THE ROAD.

0300 AM     FLOOD            FORT WRIGHT             39.05N 84.54W
03/19/2008                   KENTON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SLEEPY HOLLOW ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0300 AM     FLOOD            INDEPENDENCE            38.95N 84.55W
03/19/2008                   KENTON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CODY ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

HATZOS