Tornado Warning 16, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 112032
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
332 PM EST THU DEC 11 2008

NCC017-155-112042-
/O.CAN.KILM.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081211T2045Z/
BLADEN NC-ROBESON NC-
332 PM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ROBESON AND WESTERN BLADEN
COUNTIES IS CANCELED...

AT 328 PM EST...THE TORNADO WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT
OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3483 7885 3484 7851 3476 7845 3447 7869
      3458 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 196DEG 53KT 3500 7868

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1215 EST THU DEC 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST
OVER THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TODAY. BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH RAPIDLY MOVING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...HIGH SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY CONVECTION TO
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND
FIELDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE SFC AND UPPER
LOWS RESPECTIVELY MOVE CLOSER. BEST HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES COINCIDE
AROUND 21Z SO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MARKS THE TIME FRAME FOR BEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT..PARTICULARLY WITH CELL MOTIONS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND 50-60
KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 1-2KFT.

BY LATE EVENING...MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
AND NE OF THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER THE UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA BETWEEN 11 PM THROUGH 4AM FRI...AND COULD
POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE ILM CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN SMALL HAIL. HAVE INDICATED THE
GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW AND WILL LET 12Z MODELS PLAY OUT THE SMALL HAIL
POSSIBILITIES. AS FOR TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...HAVE INCREASE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES BOTH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS THRU MID AFTERNOON FROM LATEST VALUES.
THERE-AFTER AOK. AFTER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHES
THROUGH...DID NOT DROP TEMPS AS LOW AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...THERE4
ONE WILL OBSERVE 2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 DEGREE HIER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST EXITING THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND
TO THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND DRY AIR
TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE DAY. PCP WATER VALUES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
LESS THAN A HALF INCH AND GETTING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY
SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING ON FRIDAY AND THEN DRY AND COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN
AROUND FREEZING BY SAT MORNING AND WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 50
SAT AFTN UNDER FULL SUN. MAX CAA WILL SHUTOFF SAT MORNING...BUT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE SAT NIGHT PRODUCING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
TEMPS DOWN AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO REBOUND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING A
MORE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. PCP WATER WILL INCREASE TO JUST UNDER AN
INCH AND WILL REMAIN THERE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND SLOWLY
IN A RETURN FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ANY PCP BUT A COUPLE OF PERTURBATION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN AN OTHERWISE FLATTER
FLOW REGIME. THIS MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. OVERALL EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH PCP CHC INCREASING
INTO MID WEEK AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHED LOCAL AREA.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AND WILL SEE AN OVERALL WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK AS WARMER RETURN FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY WITH 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIMING OF THE SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIFFICULT...AS THE LINES CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL LIKELY MORPH AND
CHANGE ORIENTATION. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT ALL TERMINALS STAND A SHOT AT A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGEST OMEGA FROM 21-00Z.. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR
PREDOMINANTLY...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR IN STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL END SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT WITH ONE LOOKING FOR IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...THINK CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY. VFR EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...THE COOLER STABLE SHELF WATERS WITH SSTS IN
THE 50-55 RANGE AND WAA WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THESE WATERS...WILL MAKE IT CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. METAR REPORTS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO MYR INDICATE
SPORADIC MOVEMENT ONLAND DEPENDING WIND DIRECTIONS. WILL INDICATE
PATCHY OR AREAS OF SEA FOG IN THE FCST.

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GREATLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACH OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MORE SO FROM THE EJECTING AND
OPENING UPPER LOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IF WATER TEMPS WERE
7-9 DEGREES WARMER...GALE WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE POSTED.
HOWEVER...GALES STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF
THIS EJECTING UPPER SOUTHERN SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...IF PHASING HAD
OCCURRED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH...GALES WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A NO
BRAINER. NEVERTHELESS...THE UPPER SYSTEM AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ATLEAST A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND FIELD
TO BE EXHIBITED BY THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO GALES BUT NOT FREQUENT ENUF TO TO WARRANT
THE WARNING. SEAS WILL RESPOND...WITH 14 FEET MAXXING OUT ACROSS
FRYING PAN SHOALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WINDS
VEER FROM S TO SW AND THEN TO THE W...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A GOOD
AMOUNT....WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CAPE FEAR TO
LITTLE RIVER INLET. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL TEND TO KEEP SEAS FROM
SUBSIDING AS QUICK AS THE OTHER ZONES...IN FACT THEY COULD HOLD
STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME MORE WNW
...CONDUCIVE FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE
STABLE 5OISH DEGREE WATERS WILL HELP PREVENT THE HIER WINDS FROM
REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS. NOT
WITHSTANDING...A 40-50 MPH WIND GUST WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
GIVEN THE DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE W THEN
NW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
INITIALLY SEAS WILL BE WELL INTO SCA FROM 4 TO 9 FT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN AN OFF SHORE FLOW AND SHOULD
DROP BELOW SCA BY FRI EVENING. COLD SURGE IN NORTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS...BUT BY SAT MORNING WINDS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...BY SUNDAY CENTER OF HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
SHORE WELL NORTH OF LOCAL AREA...PRODUCING AN E-NE FLOW UP TO 15
KTS OVER LOCAL WATERS. THIS ON SHORE FLOW SHOULD PUSH SEAS BACK UP
TO 3 TO 5 FT REMAINING JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA IN THE OUTER WATERS
BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL REMAIN MAINLY 10 KTS
OR LESS WITH SEAS HOLDING IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE MOST WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GROSS-ZOUZIAS
NEAR TERM...HOEHLER/COLBY
SHORT TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS
LONG TERM...GROSS-ZOUZIAS
AVIATION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1120 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

AMZ254-256-121630-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
1120 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 952 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WATERSPOUTS. RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FROM HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AMZ250-252-121630-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
1120 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 952 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WATERSPOUTS. RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES
FROM HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-121630-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
1120 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 952 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAIN WILL ALSO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
EXPECTED.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO SEVERE WEATHER OR HAZARDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

COLBY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
228 PM EST THU DEC 11 2008

NCZ087-096-099-100-SCZ024-034-112030-
COLUMBUS-BLADEN-ROBESON-DILLON-BRUNSWICK-HORRY-
228 PM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HORRY...EASTERN
ROBERSON...AND WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTIES...

AT 228 PM EST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...4 MILES
NORTH OF CHERRY GROVE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE....MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AT THE
RATE OF UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THESE RAINFALL RATES
MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE CONWAY...ELIZABETHTOWN...
GARDEN CITY...LITTLE RIVER...LUMBERTON...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH...RED HILL...SOCASTEE...SURFSIDE BEACH...WHITEVILLE AND
ABBOTTSBURG.

REMEMBER THAT A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
7 PM. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES SUDDENLY...SOMETIMES WITH
LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

&&
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

HEDEN