Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...AND FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES
MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THE COAST DURING TUESDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE
RISK. POTENT SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THESE
STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND BEGIN AFFECTING ILM/S WESTERN
ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING. SPECIAL
18Z RAOB FROM CHS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HOWEVER CIN
IS -67 J/KG FROM A WARM NOSE AROUND 800MB. THE CIN ALONG WITH THE
MORE STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
REGARDLESS...WITH INCREASING SHEAR WILL STILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. HAIL IS
ALSO A GOOD POSSIBILITY W/ WBZ HEIGHT AROUND 8300 FT. OTHERWISE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. MINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 FAR WESTERN ZONES TO THE MID 50S
AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA.
BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS MEANDER BETWEEN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE HALF INCH.

850MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. FORTUNATELY THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED SUFFICIENTLY TO PRECLUDE AND FROST OR FREEZE
PRODUCTS...WHICH BEGIN MARCH 17 FOR OUR AREA. OVERALL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AS THE AXIS
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FORTUNATELY WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR FIVE
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 1200 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
WILL PUT THE REGION IN SOME DECENT RETURN FLOW OF BOTH WARM AND
MOIST AIR. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GO
STRICTLY TOWARDS SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE
CAUSES OVERALL SINKING AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS ABV CLIMO WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF
THE COAST AS A STRONG BUT OPENING CUTOFF MOVES ACRS THE SRN MS
VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE AFTERNOON PRETTY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
BEST FORCING COMES LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT
WHICH TIME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED. STRONG
WAA SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE WED...MAYBE EVEN
80 IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF ENOUGH.

TEMPS KNOCKED BACK DOWN TO CLIMO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
BE COOLER IF WINDS DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT FREEZING TEMPS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT MAY BE SLATED FOR SATURDAY BUT GUIDANCE
HAVING DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING PATTERN. COLD FRONT MAY BE A
CLIPPER-TYPE AS PER GFS OR HAVE A MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH AS
PER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATCHING A DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 FEET AND 3000 FEET MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.  INITIALLY THE DECK SHOWED SIGNS OF BREAKING
UP...BUT MORE CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.  WENT WITH
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 2500 FEET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 22Z - 02Z INLAND...AND 02Z
-05Z AT THE COAST.  STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 45KT AND 55KT AS LOW AS 2500 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 04Z...WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.  WINDS COULD BE A BIG GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NC TO OFF VA BEACH
EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW CREATING A LARGER RANGE IN WAVE HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWED REEFCAST AND WNA PEAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8 FT
OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
NEAR SHORE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WATERS TONIGHT...AND SOME OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40
KNOTS MOVE OFF QUICKLY REPLACED BY 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. RANGES AT THE SURFACE WILL DECREASE FROM AROUND 25
KNOTS INITIALLY TO 15 TO KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING TO JUST OVER 10 KNOTS AS AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSER MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS.

SEAS FOLLOW SUITE WITH THE WINDS WITH 5-7 FEET INITIALLY...AT LEAST
OUTER WATERS...LOWER TOWARD SHORE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...DROPPING
QUICKLY TO 3-4 FEET QUICKLY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PLEASANT MARINE WX EXPECTED TO START THE PD ON
TUESDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS VEER TO SERLY. SEAS
MAY BUILD SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY AS FETCH LENGTH INCREASES AND A
SMALL SWELL COMPONENT MATERIALIZES. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG GRADIENT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCA SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW IN THE WAA REGIME. FROPA IS
SLATED FOR LATE WED OR EARLY WED NIGHT AT WHICH TIME WINDS WILL VEER
TO OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY STILL CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA. SEAS WILL STILL
REMAIN AGITATED WITH THE VEER AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH...ESP
NEARSHORE...ON THURS BUT SCEC MAY STILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MOST OF
THE PD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HEDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-162045-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
443 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 120 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AN EASTWARD MOVING CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE VERY STRONG. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WARNINGS
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-162045-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
443 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 50 KT OR OR HIGHER IN ADDITION TO WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

CRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
456 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             5 NW HARTSVILLE         34.42N 80.15W
03/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       DARLINGTON         SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
500 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             CLYDE                   34.38N 80.18W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       DARLINGTON         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GF