Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Wilmington, NC

000 
WWUS52 KILM 312306
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
706 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

NCC155-SCC031-033-041-067-312316-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-080731T2300Z/
ROBESON NC-DILLON SC-DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-
706 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MARION...NORTH
CENTRAL FLORENCE...EAST CENTRAL DARLINGTON...DILLON AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ROBESON COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 702 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3422 7990 3433 7967 3429 7964 3435 7960
      3451 7927 3440 7897 3438 7900 3432 7904
      3426 7913 3422 7914 3418 7917 3417 7919
      3413 7921 3413 7922 3407 7924 3403 7931
      3400 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 294DEG 27KT 3443 7926 3420 7965

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SUPPLY THE REGION WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
REGION REMAINING AS A WEAK TROF ALONG COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CU HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA WITH BEST
CONCENTRATION ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND.
EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INITIALLY...BUT SO
FAR ATMOSPHERE HAS REMAINED CAPPED. RUC SHOWED BEST INSTABILILTY
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY..BUT NOTHING POPPING YET. SPC HAS PUT UP
A WATCH FOR AREA NW OF OUR CWA INTO RAH CWA. CELLS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN THE WATCH AREA AND TRACKING OFF TO THE EAST. ONLY
ONE CELL HAS MOVED INTO MARLBORO FOR A BRIEF TIME.

HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND SOME OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 107 RANGE. MOST OTHERS ARE IN THE
100-105 RANGE.CLOUDS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS AS
AFTN WEARS ON.

THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL SWITCH TO INLAND AND NORTH LATER
TODAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SKIRTS BY LEAVING THE NC
COUNTIES IN THE BEST POSITION FOR SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
PUT HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AND WENT MORE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH POPS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE 22-03Z TIME
FRAME. PCP WATER MAXES OUT AT 2.3 BETWEEN 00-06Z IN LINE WITH
TIME OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND AS SHORTWAVE REFLECTS DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS...AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE PIEDMONT TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TOUCHING OFF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY ALONG THE COAST INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. DRIER AIR BEGINNINGS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS IF WE MIGHT BE JUST A
TAD BELOW. HAVE TAKEN A BELND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS PERIOD IS THE TIMING
OF THE PIEDMONT TROF WITH THE NAM PUSHING THE TROF OFFSHORE AND
SHIFTING THE WINDS MORE AROUND TO THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST WHILE THE
GFS HANGS UP THE TROF NEAR THE COAST AND KEEPS THE WINDS WES TO
SOUTHWEST...I HAVE FAVORED THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS NAMS HAS
BEEN A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE TROF OFFSHORE WHILE THE GFS
MOVES IT MORE SLOWLY IN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. COMBINATION OF EAST COAST UPPER TROF
AND DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST
COAST WITH TIME...BRINGING AN END TO EVEN THOSE MINISCULE PRECIP
CHANCES AS H7 TEMPS REACH +10 TO +12 ON TUE/WED. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID 90S INLAND...AND WITH DEWPOINTS NOT MIXING DOWN
BELOW 70F THE HEAT INDICES SHOULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TERMINALS VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
FRIDAY 18Z OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CU DEVELOPING QUICKLY
NEAR ILM BUT STILL SOMEWHAT SUBDUED MYR/CRE. BEST 85H MOISTURE NEAR
MYR/CRE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT THE MYR/CRE TERMINALS WHERE BEST
85H MOISTURE IS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUBSIDE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS 20Z-22Z. ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
FLO/LBT THUS HAVE INDICATED CB IN TAFS...BUT VCTS EXPECTED AT THE
FLO/LBT TERMINALS BY 23-00Z. ACTIVITY NEAR LBT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TOWARDS ILM/CRE BY 03Z. AFTER 08Z PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DISSIPATE/CLEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. DEPENDING ON WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED COULD SEE PATCHY IFR CEILINGS AFTER 08Z. VFR
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL KEEP UP A STEADY SWLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WILL KICK WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THEY BUILD
ANOTHER FOOT IN RESPONSE. PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR AMZ252 TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME 5 FTERS IN THE OUTER
WATERS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SW THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE PERIOD AS TROF REMAINS OVER LAND. WINDS WILL PICK UP
ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS KICKING UP THE
SEAS NEAR FRYING PAN TO AROUND 6 FEET. WAVES TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND
3 FEET NEAR SHORE ON FRIDAY AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM...WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL SW WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SEABREEZE DRIVING AN OSCILLATION TO S/SSW EACH
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS EVEN WESTERLY IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HRS.  SPEEDS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 15 KT...THO A
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED PIEDMONT TROF COULD GIVE US 15-20 KT AT SOME
POINT.  SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FT...NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM WW3
GUIDANCE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-024-
     032>034.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096-097-
     099>101.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...MRR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

SCZ023-039-046-010730-
DARLINGTON-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN-
323 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-024-032>034-010730-
ROBESON-BLADEN-PENDER-COLUMBUS-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-MARLBORO-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-HORRY-
323 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-010730-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
323 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

REK