Wind Advisory 31, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS73 KICT 081946
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AGAIN TODAY...

KSZ052-053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100-082100-
/O.CON.KICT.WI.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-080608T2100Z/
MARION-CHASE-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-SEDGWICK-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...COTTONWOOD FALLS...NEWTON...
EL DORADO...AUGUSTA...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...WICHITA...
WELLINGTON...WINFIELD...ARKANSAS CITY...HOWARD...FREDONIA...
CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...PARSONS
246 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WILL AFFECT
THE AREA UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH
AND/OR WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.  WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ORIENTED
ROADS LIKE HIGHWAY 400...AND FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

$$

KRC

000 
WWUS73 KICT 082020
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

KSZ052-053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100-082130-
/O.CAN.KICT.WI.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-080608T2100Z/
MARION-CHASE-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-SEDGWICK-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...COTTONWOOD FALLS...NEWTON...
EL DORADO...AUGUSTA...EUREKA...YATES CENTER...IOLA...WICHITA...
WELLINGTON...WINFIELD...ARKANSAS CITY...HOWARD...FREDONIA...
CHANUTE...ERIE...SEDAN...COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...PARSONS
320 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO. THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

KRC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND
CONVECTIVE MODIFICATION OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT AS A
TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE HUT AND ICT TERMINAL
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND LATER ON AT THE CNU TERMINAL. SLN
AND ESPECIALLY RSL SHOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE TIME STORMS
REALLY GET GOING BUT HAVE STILL KEPT A VCTS GROUP GOING.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A PREVAILING TSRA GROUP FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR HUT AND ICT AND LATER
AT CNU. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE VFR RANGE. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MODIFY THESE INTO THE MVFR TO
IFR RANGE TEMPORARILY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN POINT
WHEN MVFR/IFR WOULD OCCUR AT THIS POINT.

CDB
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS ANTICIPATED OVER PAST 2 DAYS WITH
UPR-DECK LOW SPINNING OVER MT/ND BORDER EJECTING A COUPLE SHORTWAVES E
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS. WITH ULTRA-STRONG MID-UPR HIGH ANCHORED OVER MID
ATLANTIC COAST THE SHORTWAVES WILL ASSUME MORE E/NE TRACK AS THEY SLOWLY
ADVANCE E ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AS RESULT...THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...DRAPED FROM EXTREME SE CO...ACROSS NW KS...TO ALONG & JUST N OF
KS/NEBRASKA BORDER...WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS SE PROGRESS ACROSS KS WITH
FRONT MOSEYING INTO ENVIRONMENT POSSESSING 95-OCTANE FUEL. THEREFORE...
NUMEROUS +TSRA TO DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD KICT COUNTRY TONIGHT & WITH MID-UPR
FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT...ECHO BACK-BUILDING & TRAINING LIKELY
WITH FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING RESULTING OVER MOST AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY SC
& SE KS.

TODAY-MON:
PER SYNOPSIS HAVE GONE FULL-THROTTLE ON POPS OVER ALL BUT NW CORRIDOR.
ALL SHORT-RANGE MODELS DEPICT WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF 700-MB TROF. AS SUCH WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCH RAINFALLS
LIKELY ACROSS SC & SE KS WHERE ALIGNED PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO
2.00 INCHES & GREATEST LIFT. NO DOUBT SUCH QPF WILL INDUCE QUITE A RISE
OUT OF ALL RIVERS RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
LIKELY FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. PRIOR TO ONSET OF FLOOD-PRODUCING
+RA...AIRMASS TO BE PRIMED & READY FOR SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING AS PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY KS BEING POSITIONED BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF INTENSIFYING 100-125KT 300-MB JET MAX ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NRN
KS ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA TO WRN MN. PER THIS REASONING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7AM MON IS UNCHANGED.

MID-WEEK:
BRIEF RESPITE FROM CONVECTION SLATED TUE & TUE NIGHT AS STRONG UPR-DECK
TROF ACCELERATES E ACROSS MS VALLEY LEAVING TEMPORAL ZONAL REGIME IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER TSRA...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE SCHEDULED TO RETURN TO
MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY WED NIGHT AS A POTENT MID-UPR TROF ASSUMES NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT SURGES E ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH THE UPR TROF ASSUMING
NE TRACK TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NRN PLAINS THU & THU NIGHT TSRA MAY
END SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT BEING A DAY 5 FORECAST WILL
LEAVE THESE PERIODS UNCHANGED SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  62  78  61 /  30 100  30  30
HUTCHINSON      87  60  79  61 /  40  90  20  30
NEWTON          87  61  78  60 /  40 100  30  30
ELDORADO        87  62  76  60 /  40 100  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  63  77  61 /  30  90  50  30
RUSSELL         84  58  80  59 /  30  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  59  79  60 /  30  70  10  20
SALINA          85  60  79  60 /  40  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       86  60  79  61 /  40  90  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     89  66  77  61 /  20  90  80  40
CHANUTE         88  65  76  61 /  30 100  70  40
IOLA            88  64  76  61 /  40 100  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    89  66  77  61 /  30 100  80  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
633 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY
RAINS AS WELL...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DECELERATES WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY...FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDDAY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH
ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...SO ONE SHOULD LISTEN FOR
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS AS THIS...TOO...MAY BE A VOLATILE
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

*CORRECTED SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT*