Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH SALINE COUNTY. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE LOOP WAS SHOWING MORE SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 4
AND 5 INCHES. WE WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO END DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS THE AREA OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY MOVES THROUGH AND
BRINGS MORE SUBSIDENCE TO THE RAIN SOAKED AREA. MEANWHILE...THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT CNU WHERE THEY MAY SEE 3-5SM BR AFTER 09Z.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THRU
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
TRAILS SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH MORE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AS THE
BETTER DYNAMIC PUSH STAYS NORTH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY MORNING. HOWEVER A SHALLOW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
SURFACE FRONT REDEVELOPING ALONG OR NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE
CHANCES ALONG THE SURFACE FEATURES THRU WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUGE
STORM INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PORTEND TO BASICALLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE COLD FRONTS DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY
WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BEARISH WITH THIS FRONT...AND THE
FORECAST CONSENSUS WAS TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGES FOR NOW AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMISH IN THE 80S. ALSO LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH THIS FRONT...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONGER TROF DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD PUSH A MODERATE STRENGTH CANADIAN FRONT
AND COOLER AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...HOWEVER CONSENSUS WAS
TO HAVE SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF WICHITA.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT RSL
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND SLN TERMINAL THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY REACH HUT/ICT AS WELL THIS
EVENING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER. COULD SEE
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR RSL/SLN
WITH STRONG WIND/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF FRONT SHOULD HALT TONIGHT...LIKELY ONLY MAKING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS CENTRAL KS BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  85  61  85 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          62  84  61  84 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        62  85  60  85 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  85  61  85 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         60  86  60  86 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  86  60  86 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          62  86  61  86 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  86  61  86 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     61  85  59  85 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         61  85  59  85 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            61  84  59  84 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  85  59  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
346 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
346 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS TO 50 MPH.

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
457 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE BROOKVILLE         38.75N 97.84W
09/23/2008  E45 MPH          SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     FLOOD            3 E BROOKVILLE          38.77N 97.81W
09/23/2008                   SALINE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 140
            AND REESE ROAD.

&&

REC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

KSZ049-232315-
SALINE-
552 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SALINE COUNTY...

AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ASSARIA...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS STORM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN
FOR LATER STATEMENTS...OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK
FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             SMOLAN                  38.74N 97.68W
09/23/2008  M0.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY WFO TOPEKA.

&&

EPS

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