Severe Thunderstorm Warning 402, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 060016
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSC077-191-060100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-080806T0100Z/
SUMNER KS-HARPER KS-
716 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN HARPER
AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREEPORT...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
ANTHONY...MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES NORTH OF BLUFF CITY BY 725 PM CDT.
  NEAR ANTHONY BY 800 PM CDT.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO AFFECT FREEPORT.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS. 

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3702 9818 3737 9815 3727 9760 3702 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 075DEG 10KT 3715 9786

$$

CARUSO

000 
WWUS53 KICT 060037
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
737 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSC077-191-060100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-080806T0100Z/
SUMNER KS-HARPER KS-
737 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN HARPER
AND SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREEPORT...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ANTHONY...MOVING NORTH AT 6 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES WEST OF ARGONIA BY 800 PM CDT.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL ALSO AFFECT FREEPORT AND DANVILLE.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3702 9818 3737 9815 3727 9760 3702 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 179DEG 5KT 3723 9785

$$

CARUSO

000 
WWUS53 KICT 060055
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
755 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSC077-191-060104-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0402.000000T0000Z-080806T0100Z/
SUMNER KS-HARPER KS-
754 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HARPER AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

AT 751 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE RISK TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3702 9818 3737 9815 3727 9760 3702 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 179DEG 5KT 3725 9785

$$

CARUSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS.

SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS VERY EVIDENT ON RADAR...IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED FROM SOUTH OF ICT TO NEAR CNU. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WHERE
BETTER CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
ONCE WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP FURTHER
NORTH LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE 310K SURFACE. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON PRECIP BREAKING OUT AFTER 09Z FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NE THROUGH CENTRAL KS...WHICH DOES LEAD TO SOME CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PANNING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE STORM POTENTIAL.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FESTER UNTIL 03Z ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AS A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. WHILE THESE STORMS WILL
NOT BE HAIL PRODUCERS...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AT THIS POINT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT
STORMS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KICT THROUGH 03Z. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO SPARK OFF STORMS AFTER 09Z
OVER CENTRAL KS. KRSL AND KSLN WILL HAVE THE BET SHOT TO EXPERIENCE
THESE STORMS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCI:
1) BEHAVIOR/POSITIONING OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED SW-NE
THROUGH HEART OF KICT COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) RESULTING CONVECTION & TEMPS AS FRONT TRANSITIONS INTO WARM
VARIANT DRIFTING N ACROSS C KS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHERE IT IS LIKELY
TO STALL BY EVENING.

TONIGHT-THU:
WITH AFORE-MENTIONED FRONT REMAINING IN & CLOSE TO KICT NEIGHBORHOOD
AND 91-OCTANE FUEL WITH WHICH TO INTERACT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO
DOUBLE TSRA CHANCES OVER PRIMARILY C KS THIS EVENING AS FRONT BEGINS
TO LIFT SLOWLY N IN RESPONSE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPR
RIDGE. AIRMASS OVER MOST OF C & ERN KS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
TROPICAL AIRMASS INCREASING INFLUENCE. LAPS DEPICTING SBCAPES &
LIFTED INDICES HAVING INCREASED TO BETWEEN 4,000 & 4,500J & -8 TO -9
RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH TSRA DEVELOPING THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING 60-70 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. WITH FRONT VENTURING N ACROSS C KS THIS EVENING
GREATEST TSRA POTENTIAL TO LIKEWISE SHIFT N/NE ACROSS NRN PORTION OF
CWA LATER TONIGHT. APPEARS THAT WITH AFORE-MENTIONED MID-LVL RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING THE FRONT MAY LIFT TO NEAR KS/NEBRASKA BORDER
TOMORROW. AS SUCH GREATEST TSRA POTENTIAL WED TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN KS
& SRN NEBRASKA WHERE GREATEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL TARGET. ON WED
NIGHT A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE...LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...WILL
VENTURE SE FROM SD ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA TO NE KS/NW MO. AS SUCH
GREATEST TSRA POTENTIAL WILL SPREAD SE ACROSS GENERALLY NE 1/2 OF
CWA WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 50% LATE WED NIGHT. THESE
TSRA MAY BE QUITE STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE OVER THESE SAME AREAS. BY
THIS TIME THE FRONT WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD FRONT SAGGING
S TOWARD...& PERHAPS ACROSS... SRN KS ON THU. AS SUCH HAVE GENERALLY
DOUBLED TSRA CHANCES TO 40-50% ACROSS SRN KS ON THU.

NEXT WEEKEND:
TSRA POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE SE FROM SD TO NEBRASKA/IA BORDER
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE WARM
FRONTOGENESIS OVER C & ERN KS ON SUN THAT MAY PUSH INTO EXTREME NE
KS/NRN MO SUNDAY NIGHT BY WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT SHOULD VENTURE SE
FROM C KS TO SE KS. THIS SCENARIO DICTATES SHARPENING TSRA
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT...ASSIGNING 30-35% TO SE KS WHERE
NO DOUBT CLOSEST TO COLD FRONT WITH 15% ASSIGNED TO C KS. WITH COLD
FRONT & ASSOCIATED TSRA IN THE KICT NEIGHBORHOOD NAILING TEMPS
LIKELY TO PROVE CHALLENGING...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-NEXT TUE NIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST...KEEPING GENERIC
20% TSRA ASSIGNED TO MOST AREAS THESE PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  96  70  85 /  20  10  40  40
HUTCHINSON      72  94  68  85 /  20  20  40  40
NEWTON          73  95  69  84 /  20  20  50  40
ELDORADO        73  96  69  83 /  20  10  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  98  71  86 /  20  10  30  40
RUSSELL         70  91  67  85 /  30  30  50  30
GREAT BEND      70  93  68  86 /  30  20  50  40
SALINA          71  91  68  84 /  30  30  50  30
MCPHERSON       72  93  68  85 /  30  20  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  97  71  88 /  20  10  40  50
CHANUTE         72  94  69  86 /  20  20  50  40
IOLA            72  91  69  85 /  30  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    73  96  70  87 /  20  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-
053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ067-082-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
533 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS.

LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY 60 TO
70 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SUCH ACTIVITY WILL TARGET CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOSER TO A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
AFORE-MENTIONED FRONT SAGS DUE SOUTH INTO THESE AREAS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL AREAS ON THURSDAY...AND
OVER PRIMARILY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY...AND OVER MOST AREAS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR...SKYWARN
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ091-052345-
HARPER-
559 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER COUNTY...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALDRON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ANTHONY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ092-052345-
SUMNER-
607 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SUMNER COUNTY...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OXFORD...OR 9 MILES EAST OF WELLINGTON.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ091-092-060015-
HARPER-SUMNER-
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ARGONIA...OR 17 MILES EAST OF
ANTHONY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO