Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM TO OUR NE HAS ALLOWED A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH MISSOURI.

TONIGHT-WED:
A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS MO TODAY. THIS
HAS ALLOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE TO SETTLE OVER EASTERN KS WHILE SOME
TOWERING CU ARE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
AROUND 3000J/KG OF ML CAPE AND MINIMAL CAP...WILL WAIT AND MAKE LAST
SECOND DECISION ON HOW TO PLACE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL START
TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS ON WED. AS THIS OCCURS
LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TO WASH OUT AND LIFT NORTH. WITH LACK OF SURFACE FOCUS AND UPPER
SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP ON WED. THEREFORE
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED TEMPS ON WED WILL TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NEAR 100 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS
WITH LOW TO MID 90S OVER SE KS.

WED NIGHT-FRI.
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THESE PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP WED NIGHT OVER EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE 315K SURFACE.
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THU MORNING WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO AND EASTERN KS DURING THE DAY THU. AT THIS TIME
FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING EAST TO
LEAVE PRECIP OUT. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON
FRI WITH UPPER ENERGY STRENGTHENING OVER ONTARIO.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR BOTH THU AND FRI.

SAT-TUE:
THROUGH THESE PERIODS THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
ONTARIO/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
SLIDING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA FOR SUN-TUE.
HOWEVER EVEN WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOATING AROUND...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THAT HIGH IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP. THEREFORE ADJUSTED POPS TO HIT THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF EASTERN KS...TAKING OUT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  WILL
KEEP SOME MID LEVEL CEILING MENTIONED IN THIS AREA...AS WANING
CONVECTION STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA.  WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VCTS MENTION EITHER FOR NEAR KCNU...BUT COULD SEE THIS ADDED LATER.

KETCHAM

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      71  99  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          72  98  73  98 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        72  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  98  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         70  99  71 101 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70 100  71 100 /  20  10  10   0
SALINA          71  99  72 100 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  99  72 100 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         71  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            71  93  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
439 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
439 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
KINGMAN TO WICHITA TO PARSONS LINE. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG WITH WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...A FEW MAY
ATTAIN SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT THIS WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/KETCHAM/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ096-100-222200-
LABETTE-NEOSHO-
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LABETTE AND NEOSHO COUNTIES...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCUNE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PARSONS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
438 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ052-222200-
MARION-
438 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 432 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...AND WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

KSZ072-096-100-222230-
ALLEN-LABETTE-NEOSHO-
501 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ALLEN...LABETTE AND NEOSHO COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA HARPE
TO JUST WEST OF MCCUNE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
503 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             5 W ELMDALE             38.37N 96.74W
07/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

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