Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED IN
THE LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER DURATION AND EXTENT
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. WILL LIMIT THIS
TO MORE IMMINENT ACTIVITY WITH AMENDMENTS.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THU AND
MAINLY TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT:
CURRENT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS TO THE
SOUTH OF CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CEN KS.  THIS IS ALSO ALONG THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHEST SBCAPE WITH 3500-4000 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY
NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EAST AS MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH OF THIS CONVECTION AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH
MORE CONVECTION EPXECTED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CEN KS. FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL TAKE IT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS
CONVECTION...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BUT BULK SHEAR IS
RATHER LOW FOR A SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. 0-3KM SHEAR DOES
INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS...SO SOME CONCERN
ABOUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS.

THU:
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO STILL BE AROUND DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS. NOT TO JAZZED ABOUT GFS
DEPICTION OF QPF OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON
HOURS...GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OUT INTO SWRN MO BY THIS TIME.
SO PREFER THE NAM FOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT.  SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
AGAIN BE KEY FOR POPS ON THU. SOME CONCERN ABOUT TONIGHTS CONVECTION
PUSHING MAIN BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK...BY THU AFTERNOON. BUT
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR THU AFTERNOON/
EVENING. COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP/CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS THU NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN INCREASES CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AS SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

FRI:
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT BOTH MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO OK FOR FRI AFTERNOON....WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
MOST OF KS.  SO WILL CUT BACK OR REMOVE POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A LOW POP IN SOUTHEAST KS
FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THESE POPS REMOVED IF DRIER TREND CONTINUES
ON THU.

SAT-SUN:
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASH OUT ACROSS OK EARLY
ON SAT AS WARM ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST ACROSS KS.  REFLECTION OF
THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOWS UP ON THE GFS MODELS 310-315K ISENTROPIC
LAYER...WITH AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON SAT.  NOT TOO SURE THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY SHRA AS IT MOVES
THROUGH AS LOW LAYERS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE
ANY POPS YET...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONCERN TEMPS...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO TEMPS WARMING UP NICELY BY SUN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER IN
SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.

MON-TUE:
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH MAINLY WEAK UPPER FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE PLAINS STATES.  SO THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WARM AIR BUILDING IN ALOFT WILL KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK.  SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MON WILL PLAY
OUT AS THE ECMWF TRYS TO BRING A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR MON.  ENSEMBLES PREFER A DRIER SOLUTION....SO WITH THIS
IN MIND WILL TAKE OUT POPS FOR MON ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.  COULD ALSO
SEE LATER FORECASTS REMOVE POPS FROM CEN KS AS WELL...BUT WILL LEAVE
SLIGHTS IN THIS AREA FOR NOW. MEDIUM RANGE MOS GUIDANCE ALSO WARMS
THINGS INTO THE UPPER 90S...BUT WILL UNDERCUT THIS FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...
18Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS AS A
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS
COULD BE IMPACTED BY SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 6PM
OTHERWISE THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD AND COULD
AFFECT THE ICT TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  84  66  87 /  50  40  50  20
HUTCHINSON      67  83  66  87 /  50  30  40  20
NEWTON          67  83  66  86 /  50  30  40  20
ELDORADO        66  84  66  86 /  50  40  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  86  67  87 /  40  40  50  30
RUSSELL         66  81  62  87 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      65  82  64  87 /  50  30  20  10
SALINA          69  81  63  86 /  60  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       67  82  64  87 /  60  30  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  87  66  87 /  40  50  60  30
CHANUTE         67  85  65  86 /  50  50  50  30
IOLA            67  84  64  86 /  50  40  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    67  86  66  86 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
430 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS THAT REDEVELOP
IN CENTRAL KANSAS BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  SOME LARGE
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ON THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ARE THE MAIN THREATS ON THURSDAY.
THE STORMS ON FRIDAY MAY BE STRONG BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS.  AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
501 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             3 N SAFFORDVILLE        38.43N 96.40W
07/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
505 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND GST     COTTONWOOD FALLS        38.37N 96.54W
07/02/2008  E60 MPH          CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
506 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COTTONWOOD FALLS        38.37N 96.54W
07/02/2008                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES DOWNED FROM APPARENT DOWNBURST. WINDS
            ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELMDALE                 38.37N 96.65W
07/02/2008                   CHASE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES DOWNED.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     COTTONWOOD FALLS        38.37N 96.54W
07/02/2008  E60 MPH          CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SUDDEN INCREASE IN THE WIND FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

KED

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