Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE TIMELY
AMENDMENTS WHEN/WHERE NECESSARY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
AS OF 18Z...COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO NWRN
KS...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROF NOTED JUST AHEAD OF IT. AIRMASS
DESTABILIZING NICELY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GOOD INSOLATION
DRIVING CAPES OVER 2500 J/KG ALREADY. MOST/ALL OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IS STILL TRYING TO RECOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS LARGE MCS WHICH
WORKED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PRETTY WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL
LIKELY NOT ATTAIN THE HIGHS WE WERE ANTICIPATING 24 HOURS AGO AND
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WE MAY HAVE SOME CAP ISSUES TO
DEAL WITH ESPECIALLY FURTHER W IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAP WILL FIRST BREAK FROM IA INTO ERN NE
AND NERN KS AND WITH FRONT SLIDING SWD TONIGHT INTO OUR
AREA...BEST STORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN SERN KS ON ERN
EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER W...STORM COVERAGE
COULD BE MORE ISOLD-WDLY SCATTERED. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND
30-40 KT OF SHEAR...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. AS THE
STRONG UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXIT FAR SERN KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS IN SERN KS
FOR MAINLY LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL (AND DRIER) AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY-FRIDAY:
NW TO NRLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP OUR
ARE DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT A BIT
BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY MODIFYING INTO MIDWEEK. THE 12Z GFS
COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR AREA SOMETIME THURS INTO FRI. GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD BE RETURNING WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
THE IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF T-STORMS RETURNING TUES NIGHT WITH
CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING BY THURS/FRI. TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR
NORMAL WED-FRI.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  87  60  86 /  40  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      68  87  60  85 /  30  10  10   0
NEWTON          69  87  60  85 /  40  10  10   0
ELDORADO        69  86  58  86 /  50  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  87  60  86 /  40  20  10   0
RUSSELL         64  85  57  85 /  20   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      66  86  57  85 /  20   0  10   0
SALINA          68  86  60  85 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       68  87  60  85 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     73  86  60  87 /  60  40  10   0
CHANUTE         71  86  59  86 /  60  20  10   0
IOLA            71  86  59  85 /  60  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    72  85  61  86 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-282030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
325 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER
WEST IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

KSZ091-280030-
HARPER-
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR HARPER COUNTY...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF WALDRON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KETCHAM

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