Severe Thunderstorm Warning 351, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
706 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
/EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AMIDST MODEST WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT GETTING CONCERNED THAT
ACTIVITY WILL GET AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...GIVEN THAT SYSTEM-GENERATED COLD POOLS PROPAGATE THIS
ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH
IMBALANCE BETWEEN MODEST SHEAR AND EXPECTED VERY STRONG COLD
POOLS WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS COULD PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS
AND LOCATIONS SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT STORM ORGANIZATION FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL PROMOTE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. IF ACTIVITY CAN PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...IT LIKELY WONT BE AS STRONG
GIVEN COLD POOLS LIKELY OVERPOWERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...ICT/SLN/HUT/CNU/RSL...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS
MAY CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OR TWO AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST INTO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY EVEN CONTINUE/REDEVELOP
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL EVOLVE.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008/

SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVING MUCH AS ANTICIPATED OVER PAST 2 DAYS W/ POTENT
UPR-DECK LOW MOVING SE ACROSS ND FRI NIGHT FORCING COLD FRONT SE TOWARD
C KS FRI AFTERNOON & SC KS FRI EVENING. AMPLE 93-OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL
FOR FRONT TO INTERACT WITH & WITH APPROACHING FRONT INDUCING INCREASING
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NUMEROUS TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY BY
FRI EVENING...SOME OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUCH A
SEVERE CONVECTIVE TRIFECTA WOULD OCCUR OVER C KS LATE FRI AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING S ACROSS SC & SE KS FRI NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
TSRA CLUSTER POSITIONED OVER SE NEBRASKA/NE KS BORDER BEING SUSTAINED BY
PERSISTENT MOIST LWR-DECK CONVERGENCE ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY 850-MB
FRONT DRAPED OVER THESE AREAS. CLUSTER HAS BEEN ADVANCING SLOWLY E/SE.
HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WITH MODERATE BUT VERY MOIST SLY
FLOW DICTATES ASSIGNING 20% ACROSS C KS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. AFORE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW CORRIDOR TOWARD DAYBREAK LIKELY TO
IGNITE RENEWED TSRA THAT MAY ENCROACH UPON C KS 1 AM ONWARD.

THIS WEEKEND:
FRI & FRI NIGHT STILL TO BE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS OF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
FRI NIGHT. PER SYNOPSIS HAVE RETAINED 40-45% TSRA ACROSS C KS WHERE NO
DOUBT CLOSER TO APPROACHING FRONT WITH AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING SE
ACROSS SC & SE KS FRI NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO 1.75
TO 2.00 INCHES FRI NIGHT INTERACTING WITH 700-MB SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE
ACROSS KS +RA LIKELY & THIS TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS EVENT
EVOLVES. SE PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW ATTENTION AS IT
VENTURES TOWARD...AND PERHAPS ACROSS...KS/OK BORDER EARLY SAT. THE FRONT
SHOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES KS/OK BORDER AS GFS40 DEPICTING
PRONOUNCED 500-MB SHORTWAVE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT. AS SUCH
HAVE RETAINED GENERIC 20-30% POPS ACROSS OK-BORDERING COUNTIES ON SAT.

NEXT WEEK:
PREDOMINANTLY DRY PERIOD W/ WARMING TREND AS STRONG 850-MB HIGH COVERING
WRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DRIFTS SE & BROADENS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD GULF COAST.
TSRA POTENTIAL LIMITED TO TUE & WED NIGHTS...PRIMARILY OVER C KS WHERE
CLOSER TO/BETTER ALIGNED WITH LWR-DECK JET AXIS. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG
700-MB HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS SRN PLAINS SHIFTING E/SE ACROSS GULF COAST
AS WELL ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DICTATES ASSIGNING ONLY 15-20%
TO PRIMARILY C KS BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  99  72  88 /  10  30  50  20
HUTCHINSON      71 101  70  88 /  20  40  50  10
NEWTON          73  98  71  88 /  20  40  50  20
ELDORADO        73  96  72  87 /  20  30  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  98  73  88 /  10  30  50  30
RUSSELL         70 101  67  88 /  20  40  30   0
GREAT BEND      71 101  68  88 /  20  40  40   0
SALINA          75  99  69  88 /  20  40  40   0
MCPHERSON       73 100  70  88 /  20  40  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  94  73  87 /  10  20  60  40
CHANUTE         71  92  73  86 /  20  30  70  30
IOLA            71  90  72  86 /  20  30  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  93  73  86 /  20  20  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
921 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
921 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...MAINLY BEFORE 2 TO 3 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS LIKELY WONT BE SEVERE BY
LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT VENTURES
SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GOLFBALL
SIZED HAIL...60 TO 70 MPH WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT
VENTURES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF THREE
QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WELLINGTON TO CHANUTE.

AFTER THIS WEEKEND...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SINCE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EITHER STRONG OR SEVERE...ONE IS
ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE ISSUED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 2 TO 3 AM ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

EPS/ADK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             3 SE GALATIA            38.61N 98.92W
06/27/2008  E0.50 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JMB