Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RIGHT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
S-CNTRL/SERN KS APPEAR TO BE GETTING THE STRONGEST HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPES OF 3500 J/KG ALREADY. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO IN
REGION AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IN WRN KS. WITH DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROF COMING THRU THIS EVENING IN NW FLOW ALOFT...THINK
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM
ABOUT THE KS TURNPIKE EWD ACROSS SERN KS. DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...STRONG INSTABILITY...35-40KT OF SHEAR...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES INDICATE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THREAT INTO THE EVE HOURS. LATER TONIGHT...THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH COLD POOLS POTENTIALLY
DRIVING CONVECTION WELL E-SWD OUT OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE DROPPING
POPS BACK TO 20% AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF FRIDAY COULD BE DRY BEHIND
THIS DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK FLOW AT SURFACE-850. MODELS HINT AT A
WEAKER WAVE COMING DOWN THRU KS IN NW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
WITHOUT OF ANY SUPPORT OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WILL KEEP POPS AT
15-20%...IN MAINLY OUR WRN TIER COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGHS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEAK OUT A NICE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LIGHT WINDS. GFS HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING
ACROSS OUR AREA SAT NIGHT IN THE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WITH POSSIBLY
SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AT 850 IN CENTRAL KS. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF T-STORMS SAT NIGHT MOST AREAS...BUT ANY STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE SMALL OR ISOLATED.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY:
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH COULD ACT TO SPARK CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THAT ACTIVITY TRANSLATING EWD INTO OUR
AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE SUCH WAVE COMING OUT MON INTO
TUES...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ONE WED NIGHT. SO WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THESE FEATURES WITH LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING. TRENDED TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY UP TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES
FOR TUES-THURS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  85  63  87 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  85  62  87 /  40  10  20  10
NEWTON          63  85  61  87 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  85  62  86 /  50  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  64  87 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELL         60  85  61  87 /  40  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      61  86  61  87 /  40  10  20  10
SALINA          64  85  61  87 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  85  61  87 /  40  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  83  62  85 /  60  20  10  10
CHANUTE         63  83  62  85 /  60  20  10  10
IOLA            63  83  61  85 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  83  62  85 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201530-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1022 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENCOUNTERS AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OR TWO AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO
70 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY AROUND AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS...AS WELL AS LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 135 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SO PLEASE WATCH FOR LATER
UPDATES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CDJ/ADK

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