Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR RUSSELL TO DODGE CITY AT 19Z AND IS MAKING
PROGRESS EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AROUND 00Z...WITH THE MAIN DRYLINE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS. DEEP SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND ML CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.
WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
AS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE BEST LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LCL
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000FT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND STALL
SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BE
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND STORMS WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND A COUPLE
RIVER POINTS STILL IN FLOOD...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL THERE WILL BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WOULD EXPECT THE WIND
ADVISORY TO BE GRADUALLY CANCELLED AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
12KM NAM/WRF IS SHOWING SOME BRIEF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES
INTO MISSOURI. FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK TO INDICATE THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING BOTH TONIGHT AND
FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BOTH ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
ARE IN THE FORECAST ARE REASONABLE...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SCHRECK

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS AT RSL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SWING TO A SW
DIRECTION. REMAINING SITES HAVE A GOOD PACKED GRADIENT AND SOUTH
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS INTO LOWER 40S ARE LIKELY. BEST CHANCE
FOR TRW WILL LIE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  85  65  82 /  40  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      65  83  62  83 /  50  40  40  20
NEWTON          67  84  63  83 /  40  40  40  20
ELDORADO        70  85  65  82 /  30  40  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  86  67  81 /  20  40  50  40
RUSSELL         59  81  59  84 /  60  20  20   0
GREAT BEND      60  82  59  84 /  60  20  20  10
SALINA          62  82  59  84 /  60  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       64  83  61  83 /  50  30  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  86  67  81 /  10  40  50  40
CHANUTE         72  86  67  81 /  20  40  50  30
IOLA            72  85  66  81 /  20  40  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    72  86  67  81 /  10  40  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047-049>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
400 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND COULD EVENTUALLY GET INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. EVEN THOUGH STORMS MAY WEAKEN SOME AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FURTHERMORE...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE NEOSHO RIVER
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNING STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT MAY INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/ADK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             2 SW OLMITZ             38.50N 98.96W
06/11/2008  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW OLMITZ             38.53N 98.95W
06/11/2008                   BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS TRYING TO FORM TO THE
            NORTHWEST OF OLMITZ.

&&

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

KSZ032-112345-
RUSSELL-
618 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUNKER HILL...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD
THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 N LINCOLN             39.16N 98.15W
06/11/2008                   LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KANSAS HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A FUNNEL 8 MILES NORTH OF
            LINCOLN.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             NNW SUSANK              38.64N 98.78W
06/11/2008  E1.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS.

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     NNW SUSANK              38.64N 98.78W
06/11/2008  E60.00 MPH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDB