Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS:
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS IA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INDUCE BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS SE KS THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW & INCREASING
GREATLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS C KS & MUCH OF SC KS.

TONIGHT:
PER SYNOPSIS FORECAST BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE WIND
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR DIFFERENT PERIODS. SW FLOW ACROSS SE KS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO MARKED PRESSURE FALLS ROTATING E THEN NE ACROSS
SRN PLAINS. AS RESULT HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR SE KS UNTIL 10 PM.
ACROSS C & MOST OF SC KS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW & INCREASE GREATLY
WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING REALIZED 10PM. WINDS ACROSS WRN & CENTRAL
NEBRASKA HAVE EASILY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA & EXPECT SUCH VELOCITIES
TO SPREAD SE ACROSS WRN HALF OF CWFA LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK ARE HITTING 35-40KTS PER BUFKIT & WITH AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC
THRU 850MB CAN EASILY SEE SUCH WINDS REACHING THE DECK. RA/SN MIXTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 925-850MB WRAP-AROUND INDUCED BY AFORE-MENTIONED
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT C KS PRIMARILY THRU 10PM BY WHICH TIME
THE SFC-850MB LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED SUFFICIENTLY NE TO SHUNT MOST
PRECIPITATION NE OF THESE AREAS.

FRI:
STRONGLY CONSIDERED ISSUING WIND ADVISORY FOR C KS PER COMPARABLE REASON
STATED ABOVE. VERY LIKELY THAT NW WINDS SUSTAINED IN 25-35 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH WILL WHIP ACROSS THESE AREAS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS HAVE OPTED TO CHECK SWING IN WIND
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. AREAS OF -RA MAY VENTURE AS FAR S AS C KS & HAVE
RETAINED 20% POPS FOR THESE AREAS.

SAT-SUNDAY:
BIGGEST CONCERN IS LATE SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE HARD FREEZE
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN C KS...AS SEMI-INVERTED CANADIAN SFC RIDGE
BUILDS SE INTO KS.

NEXT WEEK:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS MON THRU THU AS LARGE UPR RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AS IT SPREADS E ACROSS CENTRAL THIRD OF U.S. MOISTENING SLY
FLOW GREATLY INCREASES DURING MID-WEEK AS SFC TROF ALIGNED WITH CO/KS
BORDER STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO MID-UPR LOW DIGGING OVER SRN ROCKIES.
WEATHER MAY GET VERY INTERESTING THU NIGHT (OBVIOUSLY FROM A CONVECTIVE
STANDPOINT) AS THE UPR LOW CROSSES NE NM/SE CO THATLL ENABLE SFC-850MB
DRY LINE TO PUNCH E ACROSS TX & OK PANHANDLES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID
LVL COLD ADVECTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  52  34  51 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  49  33  50 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          38  49  34  49 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        40  51  34  49 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  55  35  52 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         34  47  32  49 /  50  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      35  48  33  50 /  40  20  10  10
SALINA          36  47  33  47 /  40  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  48  33  49 /  40  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     43  56  35  51 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         42  52  35  49 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            42  50  35  49 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    43  54  35  50 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-069-083-
091>093.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
132 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-111645-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
132 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG...WITH DIME SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR PARSONS AND OSWEGO WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FURTHERMORE...VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FINALLY...A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PUSH THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INTO THE HIGH
CATEGORY...OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...AND COULD RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. A HARD FREEZE IS MORE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING...PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND LATER FORECASTS ON THIS POSSIBLE KILLING
FREEZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CDJ/JMC/ADK

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