Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF SUITE.
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AFTER 03Z AS IMPULSE IN THE MID LAYERS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
INCLUDE A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS FROM 03-07Z/WED. COULD SEE SOME
TAFS SITES GO DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER
TSRA.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WHERE TSRA WILL BE TO ADD SOME TEMPO
GROUPS AND GO MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS THE TSRA
APPROACHES. GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE NEAR THE KICT/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY THE KSLN TAF SITE.

WILL SEE THIS CONVECTION PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE KCNU
TAF LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WED. SO WILL KEEP VCTS IN THIS SITE FOR
THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF
THE WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THURSDAY.

TONIGHT:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A DISTINCT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. WE DID SOME EXTRAPOLATION AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND 03Z WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO DECENT SHEAR IN THE 1-6KM LAYER
(40KTS). MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER DURING THE EVENING...BUT IT MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH MAY CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH BY DAYBREAK...WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SUBSIDENCE DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE DIG INTO THE ROCKIES TOMORROW
AND ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND CAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE MAY SEE A ROGUE STORM
TRY TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT THESE
CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...DUE TO DECENT
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUILDING OVER THAT AREA. 1000-850MB FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REALLY SOAR
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF WE
CAN GET A STORM OR TWO TO BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN
KANSAS...WE MAY SEE THEM MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH BRISK SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 TO 70KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CANNOT RULE OUT THE TORNADO
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS EITHER...BUT A LOT OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAINLY
FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND SOME SUBSIDENCE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DECENT MOISTURE
RETURN/ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND
AND KEEP US IN A WARM REGIME WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
90S. THERE IS ALSO SOME DECENT CAP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION CHANCES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH.

COX

AVIATION...

FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

CURRENTLY HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NEAR KHUT TO KSLN.
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A WAVE
APPROACHING EASTERN CO. FEEL THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z AS THIS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AND WOULD AFFECT
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA(KSLN AND KCNU).
ANOTHER AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NW KS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT HIT THUNDER TOO HARD IN ANY OF THE
TAFS...UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON WED PROVIDING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
FOR KICT AND KCNU...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30MPH LIKELY.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  95  72  91 /  30  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      67  97  69  91 /  30  10  10  30
NEWTON          68  94  71  90 /  30  10  10  30
ELDORADO        70  93  72  89 /  30  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  94  75  91 /  30  10  10  20
RUSSELL         65  92  66  83 /  40  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      65  98  67  87 /  30  20  20  40
SALINA          69  93  68  88 /  40  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       67  94  69  90 /  30  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     73  92  75  89 /  30  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  92  75  89 /  30  10  10  20
IOLA            70  92  74  88 /  30  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    71  92  75  89 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN COMBINATION WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
FEW TORNADOES. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
PASSES THROUGH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS...AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERAL
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS.

FURTHERMORE...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER MAKER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED ANY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHECK LATER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/KLEINSASSER

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