Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TODAY-MONDAY:
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KANSAS
REGION DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE-850 FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER PROGGED TO REMAIN IN TACT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% POPS TODAY IN
S-CNTRL/SERN KS WITH WEAK 850 CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 850-700 FRONTAL ZONE. THE 850 CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND 850-700 LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE EACH NIGHT
THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE-STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 45-55 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PM/EVE HOURS. BY MON PM...CONVECTION ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT MAINLY INTO NERN KS AS WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR SPREADS INTO OUR
AREA. TRIMMED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY IN ANTICIPATION OF
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND EASTERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE MONDAY SHOULD HEAT
UP WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
IT APPEARS WE MAY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN CONVECTION CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS...THE
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL ARE DEPICTING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER TROF MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO FLOW NWD ACROSS OUR AREA
WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AS THE UPPER
TROF/DRYLINE FEATURES MOVE EWD ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY THURS-THURS NIGHT FOR NOW...AND
WILL LIKELY REFINE/INCREASE POPS AS WE GET NEARER IN TIME AND
CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE SOLUTION.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  84  68 /  20  30  30  30
HUTCHINSON      86  63  84  68 /  20  30  20  30
NEWTON          86  64  84  67 /  20  30  20  30
ELDORADO        85  64  84  68 /  20  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  69 /  30  40  30  30
RUSSELL         86  59  84  66 /  10  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      86  61  83  67 /  20  20  20  30
SALINA          87  61  85  66 /  10  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  62  84  67 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     85  64  84  68 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         84  63  84  68 /  30  30  20  30
IOLA            85  62  84  68 /  20  30  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  63  84  68 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010345-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MATFIELD GREEN TO ANTHONY. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 50 TO
55 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM CHANUTE TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST COWLEY COUNTY...WHERE HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BESIDES
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SOME SEVERE WEATHER. PLEASE CHECK LATER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

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