Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

VERY CHALLENGING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST WITH SEVERE CONVECTION AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE A WARM FRONT SAGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EXTENDS
FROM JUST NORTH OF KSLN TO NORTH OF KDDC. AN AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...EVIDENT BY BETTER CU FIELD...EXTENDS FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE TROUGH.

TONIGHT:
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG THE 310-315K SURFACE. THIS ACTIVITY KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CAUSING ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TREND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST WITH ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE/BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE CURRENTLY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...OR CLOSER TO WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE KS THIS
EVENING. WITH SAGGING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL JET
CONVERGING ALONG THIS FEATURE...A CLASSIC FLOODING SCENARIO IS
SETTING UP FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. WITH GROUNDS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM STORMS THIS MORNING...WILL GO WITH A FLOOD
WATCH FOR BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
18Z TUE. WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...AM CONFIDENT WELL GET
INTO SOME RIVER FLOODING FOR AREAS OF SE KS OVERNIGHT INTO TUE.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS DECREASES WITH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER
WEST. STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE BUT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS ACTIVITY ON...WITH THE DRYLINE MUCH FURTHER WEST. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL FESTER OVER SOUTHERN AND SW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. FEEL THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL COME CLOSE TO OR A
BIT AFTER 00Z AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS CRANKED UP. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STORM OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE BEST TOR
THREAT WILL BE THROUGH 03Z WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF FORECAST
AREA.

TUE-THU:
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY SOUTH ON TUE AND BY 00Z WED
WILL BE SITUATED FROM NEAR KCNU TO NEAR KOKC. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE
SE KS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUE AND A CONTINUED FLOODING THREAT. ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME
HAILERS OVER SE KS DURING THE DAY TUE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STAYING AROUND. BY 12Z WED THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL JUST LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EXTREME SE
KS FOR ANYTHING STAYING JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUE
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO  REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS WITH
RETURN FLOW STARTING BACK UP FOR THE WESTERN HALF. WITH EXPECTED
RIDGE OVER AREA...WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRI-MON:
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON LIFTING THE UPPER WAVE TO OUR SW INTO
EXTREME NW KS/NE DURING THE DAY FRI. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
EAST...IT WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI
NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THIS
WAVE QUICKLY MOVES OFF GIVING WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST. A
DEEPER AND MORE POWERFUL UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ON SHORE ON
MON...POSSIBLY GETTING US BACK INTO SEVERE WEATHER MODE FOR THE
BEGINNING/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE.
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AT THIS
TIME.  WILL KEEP SOME VCTS IN THE KCNU TAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END.  ALSO NOTED
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  EXPECT THIS
CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY BURN OFF AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CHANCES TO THE WEST OF KHUT/KRSL
AND KICT THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH VCTS NEAR THESE AREA AFTER 23Z
AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 06Z AS CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS KHUT/KICT AREAS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  75  54  72 /  80  30  30  10
HUTCHINSON      64  70  50  69 /  80  30  20  10
NEWTON          66  73  52  71 /  80  30  20  10
ELDORADO        68  76  54  72 /  80  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  78  56  74 /  70  30  30  10
RUSSELL         56  62  45  68 /  80  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  63  46  68 /  80  30  20  10
SALINA          63  64  48  70 /  80  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       64  69  49  70 /  80  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  81  59  76 /  70  60  50  20
CHANUTE         69  79  56  74 /  70  50  40  20
IOLA            68  78  54  73 /  80  50  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  80  58  75 /  70  60  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
539 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE....TONIGHT

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
TOWARD SUNSET AS THE SURFACE FRONT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THE HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 AS STORMS TO
OR WEST MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO THE LOCATION WHERE A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 10 PM.

WITH GROUNDS SATURATED FROM RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM EUREKA TO ELDORADO TO WELLINGTON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY NIGHT. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
FROM HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LATER OUTLOOKS
WILL CONTAIN MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK LATER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY...MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ACCESS TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS...AND PLAN OF WHAT YOU WILL DO
IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...
AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON/LAWSON

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