Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY:

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING CAPES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE BASED. 1200
UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL BUFR SOUNDING AT ICT HAS ABOUT
3200 J/KG CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY WITH MEAN PARCEL
AND NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. BRISK LOW LEVEL JET ADDED FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CURVE TO HODOGRAPH...ALTHOUGH 0-3KM
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS LESS THAN OPTIMAL.
EXPECT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN
RATHER SPARCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...DOUBT THAT STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY STOP EVEN AFTER LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS LATE MORNING EAST OF I-35 AND SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE TORNADO THREAT WILL
INCREASE LATE MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. RAPID DRYING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE AND RECOVERY TO
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT-TUE:

SPED UP TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION JUST A BIT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER 0000 UTC IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KS. RATHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH WINDS
DECREASING. RELATIVELY QUITE OTHERWISE.

WED-THU:

RATHER TRICKY FORECAST WITH A RELATIVELY WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS TO
CHOOSE FROM. THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN RUN TO RUN
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES...EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
MODEL HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. DO
NOT BELIEVE THE RAPID INFLUX OF MOISTURE PROGNOSTICATED BY GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL...BELIEVE IS HAS MOISTENED THE 850MB LAYER
DUE TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT WELL NORTH OF TRUE 850MB FRONT. GIVEN
THAT THE 850MB FLOW ONLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH AROUND 1200 UTC...FIND
IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL BE THAT FAR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY 0000 UTC THU. HAVE RELUCTANTLY BUMPED UP
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG OK BORDER FOR
CONSISTENCY. WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED ON WED...BUMPED
UP TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
WED NIGHT AND THU HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR THU.
HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES WITH FRONT LIKELY
IN THE VICINITY OF OK BORDER THU AFTERNOON.

FRI-SUN:

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION... 0600 UTC TAF UPDATE...SCATTERED TO MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. MEANWHILE...IFR/LIFR CLOUD
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  37  55  36 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      59  35  51  35 /  20   0   0  10
NEWTON          62  34  51  35 /  40   0   0  10
ELDORADO        68  36  53  37 /  60  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  39  56  40 /  50  10   0  10
RUSSELL         54  31  49  36 /  20   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      54  32  50  35 /  20   0   0  10
SALINA          55  34  50  37 /  30   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       56  34  50  35 /  30   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  43  57  39 /  80  20   0   0
CHANUTE         68  39  53  38 /  80  20   0   0
IOLA            67  38  51  37 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  41  55  38 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
512 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
512 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TWO INCH HAIL...WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MARION TO NEWTON TO WELLINGTON THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF A YATES
CENTER TO ARKANSAS CITY LINE AFTER 1 PM. ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD
EXIT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG ON THURSDAY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON
TO EUREKA TO IOLA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF I-35.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

HOWERTON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
554 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ093-311130-
COWLEY-
554 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR COWLEY COUNTY...

AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ095-096-099-100-311145-
LABETTE-MONTGOMERY-NEOSHO-WILSON-
617 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LABETTE...MONTGOMERY...NEOSHO AND WILSON
COUNTIES...

AT 614 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM HAVANA TO CHANUTE AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ093-094-311200-
COWLEY-ELK-
632 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR COWLEY AND ELK COUNTIES...

AT 627 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BURDEN...OR 18 MILES EAST OF
WINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CDB