Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SQUALL LINE CONTINUING ITS WAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH THE WICHITA TAF SITE DURING THE NEXT HALF
HOUR OR SO AND POSSIBLE REACH CHANUTE AFTER 09Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM ROLLS THROUGH THE WICHITA TAF
SITE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MVFR CEILINGS (1-2KFT)
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER 18Z.

COX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

UPDATE...

THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE SQUALL LINE PASSING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A STRONG MESO HIGH DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE COLD POOL SQUALL LINE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 0-3KM SHEAR IS
STILL AROUND 40KTS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR A LONG LIVED SQUALL
LINE. THIS COLD POOL SQUALL LINE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO PROGRESS
ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND PRODUCE SOME POTENTIAL DOWNBURST. THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SQUALL LINE CATCHES UP WITH THE
SUPERCELL IN RENO COUNTY. WE ARE ALSO GOING AHEAD AND CANCELING THE
HIGH WIND WARNING.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING NUMEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WE ARE
WATCHING OKLAHOMA AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO SPAWN
MORE STORMS FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
AND CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL JET TO REALLY KICK IN. TIMING OF THESE
STORMS LOOK TO BE AROUND 03Z-05Z ACROSS THE
RUSSELL...SALINA...HUTCHINSON AND WICHITA TAF SITES. WE HAVE NOT
INSERTED ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS POINT EXCEPT FOR RUSSELL.
HOWEVER...WE ARE GOING TO INCLUDE VCTS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL ON
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. WE DO NOT PLAN ON INSERTING PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT...BUT WE MAY HAVE INSERT TEMPO GROUPS ACROSS WICHITA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE WE ARE STILL CAPPED.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERN/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN-CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A
SHORTWAVE/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY IS PROGRESSING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

TORNADO WATCH HAS RECENTLY BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
KANSAS...INCLUDING BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM. AS
HEATING CONTINUES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASING TO 60-80 KTS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING JET STREAK
ALONG WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR/ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...DESPITE MODELS INDICATING THIS BOUNDARY
WASHING OUT BY EVENING. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FIRE...ALTHOUGH
STORM MOTION DIRECTED NORTHEAST WOULD RAPIDLY MOVE STORMS INTO MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH.

ANTICIPATING ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BACKING SURFACE WINDS THIS
EVENING (AS ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS) AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY VALUES. ANY
STORMS THAT INGEST THIS HELICITY-RICH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG AND/OR
LONG-TRACKED GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
COMBINATION...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THIS BEST HIGH-END SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WEST OF
I-135 THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM SUSTAINING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ALL NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THREAT
DOESNT LOOK QUITE AS CERTAIN AS THIS EVENING DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND LESS UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN
FIRE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SEVERE STORMS.

ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL DUE TO PROXIMITY
OF MID/UPPER RIDGING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY PROMOTE WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  90  67  89 /  30  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      67  91  66  89 /  30  20  30  20
NEWTON          68  90  67  88 /  30  20  20  20
ELDORADO        69  89  67  88 /  30  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  89  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELL         63  91  64  88 /  40  30  40  40
GREAT BEND      64  91  64  89 /  40  30  30  30
SALINA          66  91  66  88 /  40  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       67  91  66  88 /  40  20  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  69  88 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         69  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  20
IOLA            69  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
925 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-242145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
925 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOVING INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 135 AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
STRONG TORNADO.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SEE THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS
THE FLINT HILLS...WITH EVEN A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BE CONFINED GENERALLY TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE
THE THREAT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH THE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT IS ADVISED TO CHECK ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE SEVERE99 WEATHER THREAT AREAS. ALSO...STAY
TUNED FOR ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     FLOOD            10 N ARLINGTON          38.04N 98.18W
05/24/2008                   RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF K14 AND
            CLARK ROAD.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     HAIL             4 E MURDOCK             37.58N 97.85W
05/24/2008  E1.75 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW CHENEY            37.71N 97.82W
05/24/2008  E60.00 MPH       KINGMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT WEST GATE AT CHENEY LAKE IN
            KINGMAN COUNTY.

&&

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
117 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LANGDON             37.82N 98.32W
05/24/2008                   RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WIDE PATH OF TREES DOWN BLOCKING LANGDON
            ROAD...2 MILES SOUTH OF LANGDON.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
126 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     FLOOD            MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
05/24/2008                   MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY OF
            MCPHERSON.

&&

JMB