Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

TODAY-SATURDAY:
AN OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CONTINENTAL US...KEEPING AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS OF 07Z...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME SMALL HAIL AT TIMES TOO.

GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL GETTING REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS THAT ARE
NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT RATHER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE FLINT HILLS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING.

0-6KM SHEAR IS OVER 50 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ML COMPUTED CAPE IS 1500 TO 2500 J/KG DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH DECREASE QUITE A BIT
FURTHER EAST...SO KEEPING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS REASONABLE.

THE GFS BRINGS THE DRYLINE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY...AND SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE THE NAM
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST AND HAS DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S. FOR NOW WE WILL STICK WITH THE GOING FORECAST...BUT IF
THE DRYLINE DOES COME FURTHER EASTWARD THAT WOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:
THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE FLOW
REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MONDAY. THAT MEANS OUR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ALMOST EVERYONE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD RECEIVE SOME PRECIPITATION.

SCHRECK

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE. THIS CONVECTION MAY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE WICHITA AND HUTCHINSON TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND POSSIBLY MOVE TOWARDS CHANUTE TOWARDS 09Z. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...BUT WE WILL NOT MENTION THAT IN
THE TAFS YET. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS (1500-2500FT) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  69  89  67 /  30  40  20  30
HUTCHINSON      86  69  88  66 /  30  50  30  30
NEWTON          85  69  87  66 /  30  40  20  30
ELDORADO        85  69  87  67 /  20  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  20
RUSSELL         85  68  89  66 /  40  50  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  67  87  66 /  40  50  30  40
SALINA          84  68  89  66 /  30  50  30  40
MCPHERSON       85  68  88  66 /  30  50  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     85  69  88  70 /  20  20  20  10
CHANUTE         84  69  86  68 /  20  20  20  10
IOLA            83  69  86  68 /  20  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  69  87  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ067>070-082-083-
091>094-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
514 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SEE
THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF A SALINA TO EUREKA TO SEDAN LINE. THESE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN
IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WHILE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED...ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE.

WITH THE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT IS ADVISED TO CHECK ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS. ALSO...STAY
TUNED FOR ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     HAIL             2 NNE CHENEY            37.65N 97.77W
05/23/2008  E0.25 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ032-033-231130-
LINCOLN-RUSSELL-
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 520 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUNKER HILL...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
RUSSELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

KRC