River Flood Warning 97, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH RAINFALL THE FORECAST AREA
WILL RECEIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE TIMING AND TRACK OF IKES
REMNANTS.

TONIGHT:
THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS IN SEDGWICK...BUTLER AND HARPER COUNTIES. NUMEROUS FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...AND MORE RAIN IS TO COME AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE AREA. FN CONVERGENCE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO THE HEAVY RAINFALL BANDS WILL VARY
SLIGHTLY. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND WILL REMOVE MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE
WATCH SINCE THAT AREA LOOKS TO HAVE ESCAPED THE FLOOD THREAT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY...KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE KEPT SOME
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER WEST FOR LESS WIDESPREAD
RAIN...BUT IT WILL DEPEND HOW FAST THE HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD INTO
THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL MOVE THROUGH.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z
RUNS...AND BOTH NOW INDICATE THAT IKES REMNANTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
FLOODING THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT NOT ELIMINATE IT.

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF IKE FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON MONDAY...IF THE SLOWER GFS MODEL IS CORRECT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

SCHRECK

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HARPER TO WICHITA TO
COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE. THIS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA OF
700-850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY (600-800FT) ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MCPHERSON TO HUTCHINSON.
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CEILINGS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE WICHITA TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.
ALTHOUGH...WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. LATER THIS EVENING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR THE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  77  62  73 /  90  70  60  20
HUTCHINSON      64  75  58  72 /  90  60  30  20
NEWTON          67  76  61  71 /  90  70  60  20
ELDORADO        69  76  62  72 /  90  80  70  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  77  63  73 /  80  80  70  40
RUSSELL         60  79  55  70 /  60  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  78  55  71 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          63  78  59  71 /  90  50  20  10
MCPHERSON       64  76  58  70 /  90  60  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  78  65  74 /  80  90 100 100
CHANUTE         70  76  64  71 /  80  90 100  90
IOLA            70  75  64  71 /  80  90 100  80
PARSONS-KPPF    70  78  65  73 /  80  90 100 100

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-067>071-
082-083-091>094.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
358 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH THE FLINT HILLS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A POSSIBILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH AND FLOODING
WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST WICHITA            37.69N 97.46W
09/12/2008  M3.02 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER AT 13TH AND TYLER RECORDED 3.02 INCHES OF RAIN
            SINCE 10AM. STORM TOTAL OF 9.75 INCHES.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W WEST WICHITA        37.69N 97.48W
09/12/2008  M10.10 INCH      SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED 10.10 INCHES AT HIS HOME FOR THE
            STORM TOTAL.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CLEARWATER              37.51N 97.50W
09/12/2008  M8.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW LINDSBORG          38.53N 97.73W
09/12/2008  E2.25 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER MEASURED 2.25 INCHES SINCE 10PM ON SEPTEMBER
            11TH THROUGH 630PM ON SEPTEMBER 12TH.

&&

JMB

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