River Flood Warning 93, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HARPER TO WICHITA TO
COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE. THIS IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA OF
700-850MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY (600-800FT) ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MCPHERSON TO HUTCHINSON.
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CEILINGS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY WHICH MAY INCLUDE THE WICHITA TAF SITE AFTER 20Z.
ALTHOUGH...WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. LATER THIS EVENING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA AND ALLOW
FOR THE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/

UPDATE...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE HEAVY RAIN WILL END THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN STARTING
CREEP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MODELS SEEM TO HANDLE THIS
FAIRLY WELL WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVING
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. LATEST PROFILERS WERE SHOWING STILL FAIRLY
GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE PROFILERS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING
TO VEER OUT SO WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL LIFT NORTHWEST AS PROGGED EARLIER. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE
THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFT TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/

AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY AS A LOW LEVEL JET PUMPS RICH MOISTURE INTO A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 HOURS...KICT AND KHUT WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO SEE THESE
IFR CIGS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. THERE MAYBE A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE CIGS RAISE ABOVE IFR...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN
HIGH THAT BY 06Z...ALL SITES WILL AGAIN GO TO IFR CIGS.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM
TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS: HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS ALONG/E OF
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE....AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR IKES REMNANTS
AFFECTING SERN KS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.

TODAY-SATURDAY:
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS AM WILL EJECT OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS SEWD OUT OF CANADA. AS A RESULT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SW THRU CENTRAL KS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING EWD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY REACHING SERN KS SAT PM.
BEST HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL EXIST
ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CNTRL KS AND PART OF THE FLINT HILLS...WHERE THE
GFS/NAM-WRF SHOW A VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (2
INCHES)...850 FN CONVERGENCE...AND SEVERAL WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
TRACKING NEWD WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT INTO 12Z-18Z SAT FOR THE
AREA ALONG/SE OF A LYONS TO SALINA LINE. CONSENSUS QPF WITH SOME
TWEAKS MADE TO HPC QPF...IS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FFA AREA WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING ECHOES OCCUR. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.

SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY:
AS UPPER TROFFING SWEEPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE PERIOD...IKES REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM
EAST TX INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SPEED/TRACK IN
BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND FASTER ECMWF. THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO OUR FAR SERN KS COUNTIES...WHERE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AM. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO IKES REMNANTS SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS FROM
GETTING TOO OUT OF CONTROL. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THESE COUNTIES BUT CONSENSUS WITH WFO SGF WAS TO HOLD OFF SINCE ITS
4TH/5TH PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
IN THE WAKE OF IKES REMNANTS...SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR AREA
WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS UPPER RIDGING SPREADS EWD FROM THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...WITH MONDAY LOOKING
LIKE A 5 STAR DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN LOW-MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL VALUES BY WED.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  68  77  62 / 100  80  60  60
HUTCHINSON      72  64  77  58 / 100  80  50  40
NEWTON          73  67  77  61 / 100  80  60  60
ELDORADO        75  69  77  62 / 100  80  70  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  69  77  63 / 100  80  70  70
RUSSELL         68  60  77  55 / 100  60  30  10
GREAT BEND      68  61  77  55 / 100  70  30  20
SALINA          70  63  77  59 / 100  80  50  20
MCPHERSON       71  64  77  58 / 100  80  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     82  70  78  65 /  80  70  80 100
CHANUTE         80  70  78  64 /  90  70  80 100
IOLA            79  70  78  64 /  90  70  70 100
PARSONS-KPPF    81  70  78  65 /  80  70  80 100

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ049>053-067>071-
082-083-091>094.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG
WITH THE FLINT HILLS. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE FLINT
HILLS DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A POSSIBILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH AND
FLOODING WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S MAIZE               37.72N 97.46W
09/12/2008  M6.79 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            6.79 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF 21ST AND MAIZE.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLOOD            3 S MCPHERSON           38.33N 97.66W
09/12/2008                   MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            14TH AND COMMANCHE WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD.

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLOOD            1 S CANTON              38.37N 97.43W
09/12/2008                   MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            27TH ST WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56.

&&

REC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GODDARD                 37.66N 97.58W
09/12/2008  M7.99 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW CHANNEL 3.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
09/12/2008  E6.62 INCH       BUTLER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CLEARWATER              37.51N 97.50W
09/12/2008  M5.52 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT CLEARWATER MIDDLE
            SCHOOL.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CONWAY SPRINGS          37.39N 97.64W
09/12/2008  M5.32 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT KYLE TRUBLOOD
            ELEMENTARY. ST. JOSEPH SCHOOL ALSO REPORTED 4.37 INCHES.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAYSVILLE               37.57N 97.35W
09/12/2008  M4.18 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT OATVILLE ELEMENTARY.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ROSALIA                 37.82N 96.62W
09/12/2008  M3.93 INCH       BUTLER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT FLINT HILLS
            INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DOWNTOWN WICHITA        37.69N 97.34W
09/12/2008  M3.36 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED AT KSNW.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
09/12/2008  M3.30 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT WICHITA EAST HIGH
            SCHOOL.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST WICHITA            37.69N 97.46W
09/12/2008  M7.94 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASURED BY AN OFF DUTY KSNW METEOROLOGIST.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ATTICA                  37.24N 98.23W
09/12/2008  M3.80 INCH       HARPER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT ATTICA HIGH SCHOOL.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ARGONIA                 37.27N 97.76W
09/12/2008  M3.64 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE AT ARGONIA ELEMENTARY
            SCHOOL.

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WINFIELD                37.27N 96.97W
09/12/2008  E3.58 INCH       COWLEY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY KSNW WEATHER LAB SITE IRVING ELEMENTARY.

&&

CWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW WEST WICHITA      37.72N 97.48W
09/12/2008  M5.80 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE HAD 5.80 INCHES SINCE 8AM AND 9.59
            INCHES IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS ENDING AT 230PM.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NNW PARK CITY           37.80N 97.32W
09/12/2008  M6.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATED AT 29TH SOUTH AND MERIDIAN.

&&

JMB