River Flood Warning 72, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS83 KICT 101929
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
KANSAS...
 
  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH AFFECTING CHASE AND LYON COUNTIES.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES.

KSC017-111-101959-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-080811T1914Z/
/PLYK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH.
* AT  2:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 30.3 FEET 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 32.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH 
  BANKS.  ROAD A NEAR THE GAGE SITE BECOMES FLOODED ESPECIALLY SOUTH 
  OF THE RIVER.

&&
 
                     FLD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION             STG  STG  DAY TIME     MON    TUE    WED

COTTONWOOD RIVER
  PLYMOUTH           32.0 28.5 SUN 2 PM     29.3   20.9   16.1

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

.AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

CURRENTLY HAVE IFR CIGS WITH SOME LIFR MIXED IN AND HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z AND IF NOT LONGER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTH AND WILL NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE SITES TODAY. THE DIFFICULT PART
OF THIS FORECAST WAS HOW QUICKLY TO SCOUR OUT THE LOWER CIGS. FOR
NOW STARTED TO BRING THEM UP AROUND 18Z BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE IN THE PATTERN WE ARE IN...THEY TEND TO
STAY LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THE ENDING OF HEAVY RAIN IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN THE NEAR TERM.

TODAY-MONDAY:
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS OCCURRING WITHIN
NW-SE ORIENTED 850 CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT THE MODELS PROGGED FAIRLY
WELL ON LAST NIGHTS RUNS. 35KT SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FOCUSING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. STILL GETTING 1 TO
1.5 INCH/HOUR RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS CONVECTION IN SERN KS/FLINT
HILLS ALONG WITH REPORTS OF FLOODING. SHORT RANGE WRF/GFS PROG THE
LOW-LEVEL JET TO VEER IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO MOVE SEWD OUT OF SERN KS. WILL NIX THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NWRN PART OF THE WATCH WHERE
CONVECTION IS ON THE WANE...BUT EXTEND IT TIL 16Z IN THE FAR SERN
COUNTIES. POPS WILL BE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS PM IN THE SERN
COUNTIES (NIL ELSEWHERE) BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP A
15-20% POP IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE OK BORDER TONIGHT
CLOSER TO THE 850 FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MON-MON NIGHT WITH OUR FORECAST AREA PERHAPS
TOO FAR SOUTH TO GET MUCH LIFT EFFECT. WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AND
SATURATED SOIL IN MUCH OF AREA WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL
BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE IN WAY OF SUN EXPECTED MON WILL YIELD SLIGHT
MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY:
ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWING NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT TUES-THURS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER S-CNTRL
CANADA DEVELOPING SEWD TOWARD FRI/SAT WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO KS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF
T-STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUES-THURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  64  82  65 /  20  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      79  63  83  65 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          79  62  82  65 /  20  10  20  20
ELDORADO        79  61  82  63 /  30  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  63  83  65 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELL         80  61  83  64 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  83  65 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          79  64  83  65 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       78  63  83  65 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     79  63  82  64 /  70  20  20  20
CHANUTE         80  62  82  62 /  50  10  20  20
IOLA            79  62  81  62 /  40  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    79  63  82  63 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
423 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
423 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 14 IN CENTRAL KANSAS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1
MILE AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLOOD            HOWARD                  37.47N 96.26W
08/10/2008                   ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER NUMEROUS RODAS IN THE TOWN OF HOWARD.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W ELK FALLS           37.37N 96.28W
08/10/2008                   ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WATER OVER HIGHWAY 160 AT MILE
            MARKER 382 AND 384 AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF ROAD
            18.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S ELK CITY            37.23N 95.91W
08/10/2008                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ARE WATER
            COVERED SOUTH OF ELK CITY.

0650 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W ELK FALLS           37.37N 96.28W
08/10/2008                   ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER OVER
            HIGHWAY 160 NEAR MILE MARKER 384.

&&

RBL