River Flood Warning 65, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS83 KICT 100040
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
KANSAS...
 
  GYPSUM CREEK NEAR GYPSUM AFFECTING SALINE COUNTY.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES.

KSC169-100110-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-080811T0900Z/
/GYSK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GYPSUM CREEK NEAR GYPSUM.
* AT  6:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14.0 FEET 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...INCONVENIENCE FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR 
  AROUND THE AREA. ROAD OVERFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE GAGE SITE ON 
  LAPSLEY ROAD FOR ABOUT 1/4 MILE WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

&&
 
                     FLD  OBSERVED          FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION             STG  STG  DAY TIME     SUN    MON    TUE

GYPSUM CREEK
  GYPSUM             15.0  12.3  SAT 6 PM      8.8    6.4    5.6

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
HAVE FINE-TUNED INHERITED FORECAST PRIMARILY IN TWO RESPECTS:
1) TO SHIFT HIGHEST POPS (SHRA/TSRA) FURTHER E WHERE BETTER ALIGNED
WITH STRONGEST & DEEPEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ESPECIALLY IN 305K-
315K LAYER.
2) TO LOWER MAXES TO PRIMARILY 75-80F DUE EXTENSIVE UPSLOPE/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INDUCED BY SEMI-INVERTED SFC- 850MB TROF SITUATED
IN SW-NE MANNER FROM TX PANHANDLE TO SC NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE:
NUMEROUS CONCERNS TO BE DEALT WITH. WITH AFORE-MENTIONED SFC-850MB
TROF SITUATED W-NW OF CWA...WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR CIGS 1,200-1,500
FEET TO PESTER KRSL & KSLN THRU 05Z...BY WHICH TIME IFR CIGS 800
FEET WILL PLAGUE BOTH TERMINALS THRU SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...
NUMEROUS SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO FREQUENT BOTH TERMINALS...REDUCING
VSBYS TO 4-5SM. KCNU TO REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS WELL (ESPECIALLY
FROM TSRA STANDPOINT) AS AFORE-MENTIONED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASE OVER SE KS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. FOR NOW
HAVE ASSIGNED 4SM TSRA OVC012CB TO KCNU EFFECTIVE 02Z. CONDITIONS
OVER KHUT & KICT TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOUND AT KCNU...ALTHOUGH
TSRA COVERAGE TO BE OF A MORE SCATTERED VARIANT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008/

AVIATION...

FOR 12Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASED ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THIS AREA OF PRECIP EXPANDED IN COVERAGE AS IT
TRACKED EAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT KSLN AND KCNU THE LONGEST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
CONTINUING THROUGH 16Z. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
FOR KRSL...KICT AND KHUT AS THE BETTER LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND
NORTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO. KSLN AND KCNU WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD INTENSE STORMS. MEANWHILE IFR CIGS WILL START TO SPILL
SOUTH AFFECTING KRSL AND KHUT AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TODAY-SUNDAY:
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER SWRN NE/NWRN-NCNTRL KS EARLY THIS AM IS
BEING AIDED BY SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA A 30 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ECHOES DEVELOPING SWD
INTO NWRN OK SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS KS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRONGEST 850 CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY TODAY IS PROGGED ACROSS
N-CNTRL/NERN KS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXIST. HOWEVER
DECENT (50-70%) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLATED FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. THE TREND IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR THE
AXIS OF STRONGER 850 CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT SWD INTO CENTRAL/SERN KS
TONIGHT AIDED ONCE AGAIN BY A 35-40 KT S-SWRLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OF  4 KM...PWS OF 2 INCHES...AND SLOW-MOVING NATURE
OF CONVECTION MAKE AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WHERE THE
850 CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS ALONG WITH THE
FOLLOWING: RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE PAST 3 DAYS...THE
RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES IN CENTRAL/SERN KS...AND THE MODERATE RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN CENTRAL/SERN KS VIA HPC...WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL/SERN KS FOR TODAY-INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AM. HOWEVER THINKING THE MAIN THREAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END FROM NW-SE FAIRLY
QUICKLY SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING A
GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS FOR MUCH OF AREA GIVEN
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL/CLOUD COVER AND ONSET OF LIGHT EASTERLY
COMPONENT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
GFS/ECMWF HINT THAT ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS NE/KS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
STILL DECENT 850 MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN FORECAST. GFS CONTINUES TO PROG WEAK
WAVES COMING OUT ACROSS THE REGION TUES-WED WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
MUCH LESS. SO INCLINED TO KEEP TUES-WED DRY FOR NOW. WILL SHOW
MODERATING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  67  80  66 /  70  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      80  66  81  65 /  70  80  30  10
NEWTON          79  66  80  65 /  80  90  30  10
ELDORADO        78  65  80  64 /  80  90  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  68  81  66 /  60  70  40  20
RUSSELL         82  63  81  64 /  80  50  20  20
GREAT BEND      83  65  80  65 /  80  60  20  20
SALINA          78  65  82  65 /  80  70  20  10
MCPHERSON       79  66  81  65 /  80  80  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  67  81  65 /  80  80  60  20
CHANUTE         78  65  81  63 /  90  90  60  10
IOLA            78  65  81  63 /  90  90  60  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  66  81  64 /  90  90  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
069>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
447 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
447 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PART OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER REPORTS OF FLOODING OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
947 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLOOD            4 N RUSSELL             38.95N 98.85W
08/09/2008                   RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD WASHED OUT.

0940 AM     FLOOD            7 N RUSSELL             38.99N 98.85W
08/09/2008                   RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD WASHED OUT.

&&

EPS