River Flood Warning 12, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT...THEN NEXT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AT EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. AREA OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
2 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS THERE...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH. AS EXPECTED WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE A VERY
SHARP PRECIP CUT-OFF NORTH OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A MARKED POP GRADIENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW WILL EXIT
STAGE RIGHT THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NEVADA...TO TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH THE AID
OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROF...WITH MESOSCALE COMPLEX FORGING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO AND
WILL UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO HOLD FORM AS TYPICAL FOR MAY WITH ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE...WITH
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROFS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...IN SHOWING NEXT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AT LEAST...AFFECTING MAINLY THE KICT TAF SITE. PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY MORNING.

SCHRECK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  74  53  74 /  60  10  60  10
HUTCHINSON      51  74  52  74 /  40  10  60  10
NEWTON          52  73  52  73 /  50  10  60  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  73 /  60  10  60  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  54  74 /  70  10  60  10
RUSSELL         47  73  50  74 /  10  10  60  10
GREAT BEND      48  73  51  75 /  20  10  60  10
SALINA          50  73  51  73 /  20  10  60  10
MCPHERSON       50  74  52  74 /  40  10  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  54  73 / 100  20  60  20
CHANUTE         54  72  53  72 /  90  20  60  20
IOLA            54  72  52  72 /  90  20  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    55  73  54  72 / 100  20  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-081000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
500 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL
BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
126 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLOOD            PARSONS                 37.34N 95.27W
05/07/2008                   LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED THROUGHOUT PARSONS.

&&

SCHRECK