Flood Watch 9, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THE DRY LINE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR RUSSELL TO NEAR COLDWATER. THIS DRY LINE HAS REALLY TOOK OFF
DURING THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN UP DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO EVOLVE
INTO SUPERCELLS AND AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AS THIS
ENERGY CONTINUES TO EJECT OUT IT SHOULD ALLOW THE DRY LINE TO FIRE
UP FURTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY AROUND 20Z. THESE STORMS
SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. IN THE MEANTIME...THE COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE SHOULD ALSO FIRE UP AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOCAL WRF
SHOWS THIS OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY 14 SOMETIME BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z.
THEREFORE...PERSONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD BE
READY FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE MOSTLY SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.  THE SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...YOU
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE SQUALL LINE.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO NEBRASKA LATER THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO TURN WEST AND
CAUSE THIS SQUALL LINE TO ACCELERATE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
MAIN THREAT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BY AROUND 3 AM.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ALSO LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 TO 2.5 IN. AS A RESULT...AFTER COLLABORATING
WITH A FEW OFFICES WE PLAN ON GOING WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 06Z AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
UNTIL 12Z.

FRIDAY:
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WE COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. THEREFORE...WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH...WE
ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS OCCURRING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SQUALL LINE. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WE
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT START LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. NOT SEEING ANY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THIS
FRONT...BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST...BUT WE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROF MAY CAUSE THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...THE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

COX

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE...SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF VALID
PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...MAINLY IN AND NEAR
CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  87  70  91 / 100  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  87  68  91 / 100  10  10  10
NEWTON          61  87  70  90 / 100  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  70  88 / 100  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  87  70  91 / 100  20  20  10
RUSSELL         54  88  66  93 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      54  87  67  93 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          57  87  68  91 / 100  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  87  69  91 / 100  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  85  71  90 / 100  30  30  10
CHANUTE         67  85  71  89 / 100  30  30  10
IOLA            67  84  71  90 / 100  30  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  85  71  90 / 100  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-060930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
430 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST TODAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
80 MPH...AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. LATER
THIS EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARD EASTERN
KANSAS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

PLEASE STAY ABREAST TO THE LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STORM MOVEMENT TODAY WILL BE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS OVER THE AREA.

FINALLY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND BY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
104 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     HAIL             GREAT BEND AIRPORT      38.35N 98.85W
06/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
105 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREAT BEND AIRPORT      38.35N 98.85W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
123 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE HOISINGTON        38.54N 98.74W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
127 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 NE HOISINGTON        38.62N 98.65W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          BARTON             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
153 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E SUSANK              38.64N 98.66W
06/05/2008                   BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLES DOWNED.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW WILSON             38.77N 98.54W
06/05/2008  E60 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED