Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY HAS PUSHED EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA STATE
LINES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SPENCER IN THROUGH
TALLASSEE IN TENNESSEE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW.

VERY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS SET THE STAGE
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SEVERE. THESE SCATTERED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LIS AT LEAST -4 TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND CAPE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT.

BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS FRONT
WILL PUSH TO EXTREME SOUTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY AROUND 7 PM. WILL
LEAVE ISOLATED THREAT FOR STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...IN
SOUTHERN CULLMAN...MARSHALL..AND DEKALB COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM...IN CASE THE FRONT SLOWS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SET IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ALSO...DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS MOBILE THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND PUTTING THE AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE. MODELS KEEP THE WARM FRONT FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WAFFLING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE...ADDED 30 POP EACH OF THOSE AFTERNOONS. ALSO
KEPT 20 POP DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS...EXCEPT ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WEAK FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE...HIGH PWS AROUND 1.6 AND
PLENTY OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND VERY WEAK
WIND FIELD AND ALMOST NO SHEAR...BELIEVE ONLY THREAT WITH STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    54  76  54  80 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        54  76  54  78 /  10  10  10  30
CULLMAN       56  77  55  81 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  54  74  53  76 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   56  77  55  78 /  20  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    55  75  53  78 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-210300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

FORMAL ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.  HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO PROVIDE REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRENCES.

BOYD

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