Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN AL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT
BOTH SITES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LOCALLY
AT KMSL BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z DUE TO A TSRA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSL BY 06Z AND ARE POSSIBLE AT KHSV BY
09Z DUE TO REDUCED VIS AND LOWER CIGS THROUGH 13Z. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMSL BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE
CWFA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM WELL TO OUR NORTH. FIRST
QUESTION IN THE FORECAST IS TONIGHT...AND IF THE MAIN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CWFA AS PROGGED BY
GFS. WHILE OBVIOUSLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA HAS EXPANDED OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT IT TO DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AHEAD OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/SHORTWAVE
SINKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG AXIS OF 25KT H85
NORTHWEST FLOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS DEPICT A STOUT LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH RATHER SWAMPY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS OF THE
CWFA...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SHRA/TSRA.

ON SUNDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND A SECOND SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS ALABAMA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM KMSL/HSV SHOW
CONSIDERABLY LOWER PWATS THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AOB 1.25IN. SHEAR IS
LOW...BUT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...CWFA MAY SEE INTRUSION
OF SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR AS STRONGEST H85 FLOW REMAINS TO THE WEST
OF ALABAMA/TENNESSEE AHEAD OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
KEPT POPS PRETTY LOW FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY.

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH FROM PARENT LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA ON THURSDAY...SO
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TSRA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE FRONT RETREATS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND H5 RIDGING
RETROGRADES INTO THE SE STATES...SOME OF THE MAIN MOISTURE FLOW
SHOULD BE CUT OFF FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
ENOUGH WILL REMAIN THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ARE WARRANTED IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...AMP
PREV DISCUSSION...JLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

ALZ001-052300-
LAUDERDALE-
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEXINGTON MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CENTER STAR.
  KINGTOWN.
  WHITEHEAD.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SL

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