Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CST MON JAN 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS EARLY MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPS AT OR
BELOW 20 DEGREES. SOME VERY DRY AIR WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW PTS ALSO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A CONTINUED HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT. RETURN FLOW THOUGH IS XPCTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE 40 DEGREES AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD
INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN. IN ADDITION...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS LATER TODAY BEFORE PUSHING EWD TONIGHT. RAIN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE W BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. LATEST THERMO
PROFILES INDICATE MOST OF THE PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIQUID
ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL TN WHERE SFC TEMPS BELOW 32
DEGREES MAY EXIST FOR A FEW HRS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUE...ALTHOUGH ANY
AREA WHERE THE MORNING TEMP LOWERS TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW MAY BE
SUBJECT TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IF THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS ABLE
TO SATURATE ENOUGH. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TUE
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LIFT AT THE SFC WILL MAKE RAIN LIKELY FOR TUE
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MS AND TN VALLEYS.

A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
REGION BEGINNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE SWD INTO THE
SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS THOUGH DO SHOW A SECOND AND WEAKER COLD
FRONT DIVING SWD ABOVE THE SFC HIGH AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION
WED NT AND EARLY THU. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE THOUGH ASSOC WITH
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
STRONG DOME OR REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO BUILD SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES THU AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY THU NT WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF FRIGID TEMPS AROUND 20
DEGREES POSSIBLE FRI MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING E SAT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WX SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT PRECIP TRENDS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE PREDOM A RAIN MAKER FOR
THE AREA. AS WITH PAST WX SYSTEMS THOUGH WHICH HAVE IMPACTED THE
REGION AS OF LATE...FURTHER MODEL RUNS MAY OFFER A DIFFERENT TAKE
ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS FOR THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS TURNING
TOWARD THE SE AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL THEN ENVELOP MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS NEAR DAYBREAK TUE.
RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 25 PERCENT ARE XPCTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING SELY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES AND WILDFIRES.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NWD INTO THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    45  32  43  29 /   0  30  70  20
SHOALS        45  32  44  29 /   0  30  70  20
CULLMAN       44  32  45  30 /   0  20  70  30
FAYETTEVILLE  44  30  42  27 /   0  30  70  20
ALBERTVILLE   46  33  45  32 /   0  20  70  30
FORT PAYNE    45  33  45  30 /   0  20  70  30
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN
     AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
     MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN.
TN...NONE.
&&

DG.09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
114 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-210315-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
114 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING
TO PERHAPS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND UPLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...TO
THE MID TEENS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

CRITICAL AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED RISK WITH OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THIS TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. RAIN IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KDW