Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WWUS84 KHUN 202027
RFWHUN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALZ001>010-016-210430-
/O.NEW.KHUN.FW.A.0002.080121T1800Z-080121T2300Z/
/O.CON.KHUN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080120T2300Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-
227 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. 

STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN SOME VERY DRY AIR TO THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB ABOVE THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST TOMORROW...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT
THRESHOLD AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE FIRE DANGER
SITUATION. THUS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AT OR BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND DRY CONDITIONS...WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

KDW

000 
WWUS84 KHUN 202258
RFWHUN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
458 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

ALZ001>010-016-210700-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080120T2300Z/
/O.CON.KHUN.FW.A.0002.080121T1800Z-080121T2300Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-
458 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER AS TEMPERATURES FALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS 
IN EFFECT TODAY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW HUMIDITY...INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH FIRE DANGER
MONDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND
POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

DJN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL TENN VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...ALBERTVILLE AND FORT PAYNE
ASIDE...WHILE A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS IN THE
5-10KT RANGE. RESULTANT WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5F IN A FEW
LOCATIONS BUT SO FAR THESE AREAS ARE LIMITED.

EFFECTS OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 36 HRS OR SO. AGREE WITH THE COLDER TREND THROUGHOUT THE PD
THAT 00Z MOS IS INDICATING. TEMPS YESTERDAY UPSTREAM WERE STUCK IN
THE 20S...AND WHILE THIS WAS OVER THE NORMALLY-COLDER MIDWEST...
FEEL IT SUPPORTS THE TREND ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS ALONG THE LINES OF
A GFS/ETA MOS BLEND. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WILL SLACKEN AND SHIFT TO
E/SE FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED IN MOST CASES
ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. PLAN TO TREND COLDER THAN
THE GFS THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE FRIGID ETA. WEDGING WILL BUILD E
OF THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE CNTL PLAINS
PROMPTS A SHIFT TO S/SWLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC. THE E/SELY WINDS AT
THE SFC AND ABSENCE OF ROBUST LOW-LVL WAA PROMPTS ANOTHER COMPROMISE
FOR MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY MID/UPR 40S.

THINGS TURN INTERESTING AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM
SWINGS INTO THE LOWER GRT LKS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MAXIMIZE BTWN
09-12Z IN RESPONSE TO A 30-40KT LOW-LVL JET...AND MODEL QPF REFLECTS
THIS IN A SWATH OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF ACROSS NRN MS/WRN TN...JUST
GRAZING NW AL. A PROBLEM HERE IS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY NOT BE THAT FAR
ABOVE 32F...AND 00Z NAM AND GFS BUFR PROFILES DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH
WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE SFC. DRIER NAM SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL
WET BULB WARM NOSE ABOVE 950MB...BUT A COLD LAYER BELOW 0 FOR THE
LOWEST 1500FT OR SO. THE WETTER/WARMER GFS SHOWS AN ENTIRELY RAIN
SOUNDING. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAA EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY
EARLY TUES AM...WILL TREND WITH THE GFS. IT WILL BE A CLOSE ONE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY SUBTLE WEDGE
EFFECTS THAT THE NAM MIGHT HANDLE BETTER. TEMPS WILL WARM
SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. BASED ON MOISTURE/
THETA-E ADVECTION...THIS WEAK SYSTEM LOOKS TO PROVIDE A PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN... BUT NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RELATIVELY GOOD PATTERN AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU THE EXTENDED WITH A
LACK OF MAJOR DISCREPANCIES. MDL CONSENSUS IS NOW COLDER/DRIER
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH KEEPS MOISTURE MORE SUPPRESSED
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST...AND UNAVAILABLE FOR THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED LATE WED/EARLY THU. THUS IT APPEARS MORE LIKE A DEEP
CLIPPER WITH MINIMAL PCPN EXPECTED. THE DRIER WX WILL BREAK THIS
WKND AS A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THE W COAST...PLACING THE
SERN CONUS IN PREDOMINANTLY SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.

WENT MUCH DRIER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE
SYSTEM NEXT WKND WHERE MID-CHC POPS CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED.
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER-TYPE FRONT THU...BUT A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRI/SAT UNDER SWLY FLOW.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A DECENT PROBABILITY OF SUB-ZERO DEWPOINTS
ACROSS NRN AL THIS AFTN. WHILE COLD/DRY ADVECTION SO FAR THIS
MORNING HAS NOT BEEN QUITE AS ROBUST AS FIRST THOUGHT...AIR ALOFT
SHOULD BE SO DRY THAT WE SHOULD HAVE NO DIFFICULTY MIXING OUT AND
REALIZING THE SUB-ZERO DEWPTS. EVEN WITH LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES...
IT APPEARS THAT RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 25 PCT FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTN...MEETING AND EXCEEDING ALABAMA COOL SEASON RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE PSBL AGAIN TMRW...THOUGH SFC MOISTURE MAY
HAVE RECOVERED ENOUGH TO PREVENT MEETING THE RH CRITERIA FOR 4 HRS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    33  17  46  33 /   0   0  10  30
SHOALS        34  16  47  34 /   0   0  10  30
CULLMAN       32  17  45  34 /   0   0  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  30  14  44  33 /   0   0  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   34  19  46  33 /   0   0  10  20
FORT PAYNE    33  16  46  32 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN
     AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
     MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN.

TN...NONE.
&&

BCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
909 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
909 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...

WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY AS AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND
20 PERCENT AND WIND SPEEDS 5 TO 10 MPH...OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED DURING THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING ON SEVERAL NIGHTS DURING THE WEEK...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME WINTRY WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH NIGHT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH TOO
SOON TO BE SPECIFIC ON THE THREATS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JE/SS