Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.UPDATE...
DID QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE CWA...AREA OF PCPN
HAS EXPANDED MORE THAN EXPECTED. STILL THINK PCPN WILL TAPER OFF
ARND MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SVR TSRA WITH PENNY HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS...ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF OVER MO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CWA THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ARE
MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF AL ATTM. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THE CHC OF SVR WX LOOKS LOW DUE
TO WEAK SHEAR/WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.

UPPER TROF SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA ARND MIDNIGHT...WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MAINLY FOR THE EVENING. EVENING
SHIFT CAN EVALUATE IF NEED TO KEEP A POP GOING FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WEAK CDFNT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CWA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THINKING IF TUESDAY
WILL BE A CASE OF THE HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF VALUES. WILL MOST
AREAS BE DRY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. STAY TUNED FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH CHC POPS BOTH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS/NAM
BOTH HAS CDFNT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE CHC POPS BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED AS
LIFTING/FORCING OF CDFNT SHOULD MAKE WEDNESDAY THE BEST DAY FOR
PCPN.

THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...NOT A LOT OF COOL OR DRY AIR BEHIND THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT. WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
GFS HINTS AT A LITTLE PCPN IN RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOR NOW WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS.

REST OF EXTENDED FCST...ANOTHER WEAK TROF/CDFNT PROGGED BY GFS ON
SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE...WILL KEEP LOW POPS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY
BEHIND CDFNT AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  81  68  82 /  60  50  30  50
SHOALS        69  83  69  83 /  70  50  30  50
CULLMAN       69  84  69  83 /  50  50  30  50
FAYETTEVILLE  66  80  66  79 /  80  50  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   69  83  69  83 /  40  50  30  50
FORT PAYNE    66  81  65  81 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-270500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
358 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING...SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
352 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

TNZ076-096-097-262130-
FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-MOORE-
352 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN...LINCOLN AND MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LYNCHBURG TO
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BELLEVILE.
  MIMOSA.
  MULBERRY.
  LOIS.
  OAK GROVE.
  WINCHESTER.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF
ON OR NEAR TIMS FORD LAKE OR WOODS RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
355 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ALZ001>005-262145-
COLBERT-FRANKLIN-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-
355 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LAUDERDALE...
LAWRENCE AND LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 353 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MINOR HILL TO
BELGREEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ATHENS TO 12 MILES EAST OF RED BAY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ELGIN.
  GOOD SPRINGS.
  LESTER.
  MT ROZELL.
  WHITEOAK.
  LEGGTOWN.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF
ON OR NEAR WHEELER OR WILSON LAKES...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DONT BE
CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
420 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

TNZ096-097-262200-
FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-
420 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
EXTENDED UNTIL 5 PM CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
TRACK STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TULLAHOMA TO
LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FLINTVILLE.
  LEXIE CROSSROADS.
  WOODS RESERVOIR.
  MAXWELL.
  ALTO.
  WINCHESTER.
  ST. ANDREWS.
  SHERWOOD.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF
ON OR NEAR TIMS FORD LAKE OR WOODS RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
433 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ALZ003>007-262215-
FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
433 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
MADISON AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
TRACK A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HAZEL
GREEN TO RED BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  RUSSELLVILLE.
  MOULTON.
  WHEELER LAKE.
  DECATUR.
  MADISON.
  HUNTSVILLE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF
ON OR NEAR WHEELER LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE
WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

27

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