Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
156 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...HEAT INDICES AT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO
REACH/EXCEED 110 DEGREES...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF I-65.
HOWEVER...DEW PTS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE PAST FEW HRS
WITH THE SFC INVERSION BREAKING AS EVIDENCED BY THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN
TN. MUCH OF THE EXCESSIVE HEATING CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
LEADING INTO THE SE REGION. THE CONVECTION THOUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF MAX HEATING.

THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WHETHER TO
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO SUN. THE MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SFC
FRONT TO THE N MOVING SWD THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUN WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN TOW. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
EFFECTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SUN TO AGAIN
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S RANGE...DEW PTS THOUGH MAY FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S RANGE IF THE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE WHICH MAY KEEP
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES SUN JUST BELOW 105 DEGREES. IF A HEAT
ADVISORY IS AGAIN REQUIRED FOR SUN...IT MAY VERY WELL BE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND W OF I-65 WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE
XPCTED. EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
SITUATION AS THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEGINS TO COME IN. WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUN...NOT XPCTING ANY REAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO DEVELOP ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A ROUGE TSTM SUN AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

DEW PTS LOOK TO RECOVER BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO THE E...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
VERY WELL BE WARRANTED MON AND TUE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION XPCTED. BY MID WEEK...THE MODELS FINALLY SHOW
THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENING OVER THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE/HPC PROGS POINT TO ANOTHER WEAK
SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THU. ALL OF THIS POINTS
TO SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEATING PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
OR NEAR THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    70  97  69  97  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        70  98  69  98  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
CULLMAN       71  97  70  96  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  96  68  95  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   71  97  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    68  97  67  96  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...
     JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
     MARSHALL...MORGAN.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.
&&

DG.09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-031000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
107 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110. AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ABNORMALLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.
THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA..

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SS

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