Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
127 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTN. SEVERAL LOW LVL BOUNDARIES
CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA INCLUDING A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BNDRY THAT RESIDES JUST EAST OF I-65. THIS BOUNDARY IS A
RESULT OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NE
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. A NICE THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG THIS
LINE...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPR 70S EAST TO NEAR 90F WEST.

FARTHER NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE. SFC HEATING WITHIN AXIS OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AND
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS
MAIN LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MLCAPE APPROACHING
2000 J/KG OVER NW ALABAMA WILL ALSO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY BNDRY INTERACTION. PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
AOA 1.75...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WHERE UP TO 1 INCH
OF RAIN COULD FALL IN LESS THAN 45 MINUTES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND WORKED-OVER AIRMASS. HOWEVER...LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND UPSTREAM ENERGY/H5 SPEED
MAX COULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. NOT CONVINCED A BROAD
MCS/MCC WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN LACK OF LLJ...
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD/SCT TSTMS BREAK OUT ONCE
AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION FROM LATE TONIGHT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE MRNG.
LINGERING LOW LVL BOUNDARY(IES) WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCT TSTMS
AS STRONG SFC HEATING OCCURS. MID LVL MCV/S WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENHANCING UPWARD FORCING AND ORGANIZATION
FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
BE FORCED BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING SFC LOW
KICKS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL ALSO SHOVE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. POP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
MON NGT/TUE...WITH ONLY A LINGERING SLT CHANCE THREAT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE AL/SRN TN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
12Z/GFS DATA HAS BEEN DELAYED SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. EC/GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. LWR/MID 90S WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION WED/THU AS UPR HIGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COLD
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM NEVER APPEARS TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...
SO PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NADLER.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  88  68  92 /  30  30  10  20
SHOALS        68  88  67  93 /  30  40  10  10
CULLMAN       67  86  66  90 /  30  40  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  85  65  90 /  40  30  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   69  88  68  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT PAYNE    64  86  64  90 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DJN.83

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1212 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-020400-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1212 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL INTERACT WITH A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ALL STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BCC/JLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

ALZ004-007-012130-
LAWRENCE-MORGAN-
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAWRENCE AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLINT CITY...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF MOULTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SPEAKE.
  NEEL.
  BASHAM.
  MASSEY.
  HARTSELLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

JLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
406 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             1 WNW HUNTSVILLE        34.73N 86.60W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT I-565 AND THE MEMORIAL
            PARKWAY.

&&

KULA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
408 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             HUNTSVILLE              34.73N 86.59W
06/01/2008  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SPARKMAN
            DRIVE AND NORTH MEMORIAL PARKWAY.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
415 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE MERIDIANVILLE     34.81N 86.49W
06/01/2008  E55 MPH          MADISON            AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            55 MPH WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
432 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             HUNTSVILLE              34.73N 86.59W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED IN HUNTSVILLE AT THE FIVE POINTS
            AREA.

0404 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                34.41N 87.08W
06/01/2008  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED NEAR DANVILLE.

0407 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE MERIDIANVILLE     34.81N 86.49W
06/01/2008  E0.00 MPH        MADISON            AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

0410 PM     HAIL             7 SW ALBERTVILLE        34.19N 86.30W
06/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
            ALBERTVILLE.

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTSVILLE              34.73N 86.59W
06/01/2008                   MADISON            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND OF 70 MPH REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF MAYSVILLE
            AND BELLFACTORY ROAD IN NORTHEAST HUNTSVILLE. MULTIPLE
            TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THIS AREA.

&&

KWEBER