Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST SAT FEB 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE
BANKED CLOUDS ALONG THE VALLEY-FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY INTO THE PASSES. THE
WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI PASS...EARLIER TRIGGERING
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS NEAR MOJAVE. THESE WINDS WERE LOCALIZED IN
THE REGION IMMEDIATELY BELOW THE TEHACHAPI PASS...AND HAD ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THAT AREA FOR THESE GUSTS.

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THIS TO BE A POTENT SYSTEM...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. RFC QPF FOR THIS STORM YIELDS 2-3
FEET OF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN COUNTY...
AND AROUND 9 INCHES TO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WILL UPGRADE
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR 02Z SUNDAY THROUGH 08Z MONDAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH THIS STORM. 850-MB TEMPERATURES
OVER YOSEMITE AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST BY THE 00Z MODELS TO DROP
TO -1 C...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM-12 IS EVEN COLDER...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -3 C. 700-MB TEMPERATURES OVER YOSEMITE AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN -9 C AND -10 C...COOLING ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES
C BY 00Z MONDAY. 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5400 METERS AT 00Z SUNDAY...DROPPING TO 5340 METERS BY 00Z MONDAY.
THESE PARAMETERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECASTED SNOW
LEVELS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO INTO THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE LOWERING TO 2500-3000 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY. SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE
3500 FEET...AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FEET IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. WILL ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS TO MATCH THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

THE NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE WINDS. MOS GUIDANCE FOR CASTLE AIRPORT
/KMER/ HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 21 KTS AT 18Z SUNDAY...AND GUIDANCE
FOR BOTH FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD HAS 16 KT SUSTAINED WINDS SUNDAY. IN
THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 35
KTS AT EDWARDS AFB BY 21Z SUNDAY...AND 32 KTS AT CHINA LAKE BY 18Z
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ONLY FORECAST
FOR AROUND 6 HOURS DURATION...THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE GUSTS WHICH
COULD REACH IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AT TIMES IN THE DESERTS...AND 30-35
KTS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR BOTH
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... AND FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AN EAST-PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE TROUGH
MONDAY...BUILDING ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY BETWEEN KAMCHATKA AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS /NEAR 52N/168E/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND
FLATTEN IT TUESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD
INTO CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN GET PUSHED INLAND NEXT
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS UNTIL 19Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS /CAZ098-099/.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089>092/.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS /CAZ093-094/.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS /CAZ095>097/.

&&

SANGER/DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
327 AM PST SAT FEB 2 2008

CAZ095>097-031200-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
327 AM PST SAT FEB 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST /WWUS46 KHNX/ OR /SFOWSWHNX/
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST /WWUS46 KHNX/ OR /SFOWSWHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1150 PM PST FRI FEB 1 2008

CAZ099-021200-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
1150 PM PST FRI FEB 1 2008

...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR MOJAVE TONIGHT...

WEST WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE TEHACHAPI PASS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE MOJAVE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRIVERS IN THE
MOJAVE AREA...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 14 AND 58...SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
STRONG CROSS WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING DUST.

SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD