Wind Advisory 11, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
910 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STAYING MOSTLY NORTH OF KERN
COUNTY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE STATE...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18-24Z.

THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY DROPPING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE BAY AREA AT THIS TIME.
THIS VORTICITY WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY. THE 12Z NAM-12 HAS SURFACE COMPUTED CAPES OF
400 JOULES/KG OVER MERCED COUNTY...AND AN ISOLATED 300 JOULES/KG AS
FAR SOUTH AS VISALIA. SURFACE COMPUTED LIFTED INDEXES OVER THE
REGION ARE MOSTLY NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE...EXCEPT -1 OVER MERCED AND
WESTERN MARIPOSA COUNTIES. AT 500-MB...A 140+ KT JET MAX AT 300 MB
ENTERS WESTERN KINGS COUNTY AT 18Z...PLACING MUCH OF FRESNO...
MADERA...MARIPOSA...MERCED AND WESTERN TULARE COUNTIES IN THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT. 500-MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -27 C OVER YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK AT 18Z...AND TO -25 C DOWN TO THE MADERA/FRESNO
COUNTY LINE. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HANFORD WARNING/
FORECAST AREA UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...SO THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24-35 HRS. UPPER
TROF ACROSS THE REGION STILL PRODUCING SOME SCT SHWRS...MAINLY
OVER MTNS. UPPER VORT CENTER NEAR 125W WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY A BIT. QPF VALUES NOT TOO HIGH
SO ALLOWED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SIERRA NORTH OF KERN LINE TO
EXPIRE. ATMO MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
AREAS FOR SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON THUNDER AS WELL...THOUGH ALREADY
SEEING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FOOTHILLS AROUND MARIPOSA.
THIS TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVE...AND BE
REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SAT. THIS
SHOULD END MOST PRECIP FOR A TIME. THIS DUE MAINLY TO A DRIER
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY H7
AND BELOW. THIS COMPLICATES SATURDAYS FCST QUITE A BIT. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW USUALLY INHIBITS PRECIP. WHILE KEEPING POPS MANY
AREAS SAT...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP CONFINED TO AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKES TEMPS FCSTS TRICKY AS WELL. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMING SAT TO MUCH OF THE REGION. FCST
PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH. WHILE NOT GOING TOO FAR OUT ON A LIMB...WE
COULD SEE SOME VALLEY TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S A FEW PLACES IN THE
SOUTH END. BY SAT EVE...A STORM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF 155W/35N WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW (983 MBS OR SO) APPROACHING THE NORCAL
COAST SAT EVE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE CENTRAL
SJV. JUST HOW STRONG A LITTLE IN QUESTION YET...BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOCAL SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR SO FOR A WHILE SAT NITE AND
EARLY SUN. LOCAL GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 55 MPH AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCES FOR HIGH WINDS WILL BE IN MERCED COUNTY NORTHWARD.

SNOW LEVELS IN THE SRN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS WILL BE ABOUT 5500
FEET OR SO TODAY RISING TO 7-8K SAT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR 4500-5000
FEET SUN MORNING. STILL QUESTIONABLE WHETHER SNOW WILL REACH PASS
LEVEL IN THE TEHACHAPIS SUN...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE GRADUALLY BE TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY
AND PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION SUN EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MTNS...REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
PRECIP END EARLY SUN EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
QUICKLY MON ALONG THE WEST COAST. AND EXCEPT FOR A SHORTWAVE TROF
MID-WEEK THAT WEAKENS THE RIDGE BRIEFLY...IT WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO SEVERAL DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WED.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
ABOUT HANFORD AND VISALIA NORTHWARD FROM 20Z TODAY TO 00Z SATURDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY VFR IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH LOCAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY
LINE /CAZ096-097/.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY /CAZ089-090/.

&&

UPDATE...SANGER/MV
PREVIOUS...BINGHAM/BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
457 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

CAZ089-090-231200-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
457 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR TRAVELERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NON PRECIPITATION
WARNING FROM HANFORD AT /WW US76 KHAN/ OR /SFONPWHNX/ FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

CAZ096-097-231200-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
457 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING AT
/WWUS46 KHNX/ OR /SFOWSWHNX/ FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

CAZ091-092-231200-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
457 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR TRAVELERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
917 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             TUOLUMNE CITY           37.96N 120.24W
02/22/2008  E0.0 INCH        TUOLUMNE           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
956 AM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             TUOLUMNE MEADOWS        37.87N 119.36W
02/22/2008  M12.0 INCH       TUOLUMNE           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCHES REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1248 PM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     HAIL             ARVIN                   35.20N 118.83W
02/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       KERN               CA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
134 PM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 E HANFORD             36.33N 119.56W
02/22/2008                   KINGS              CA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED OBSERVED BY 2 NWS EMPLOYEES

&&

PETERSON