Wind Advisory 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Polk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wharton County, TX

000 
WWUS74 KHGX 311718
NPWHGX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1118 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-010000-
/O.EXT.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080201T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...
KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PIERCE...
PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS
1118 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS. BOATERS IN
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING
ONTO AREA LAKES TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE OPEN WATERS OF LAKES
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS.

$$

TXZ214-235>238-010200-
/O.CON.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080201T0200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
EDNA...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...
WINNIE
1118 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS BUT
STILL REMAIN BREEZY NEAR THE COAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS. BOATERS IN
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING
ONTO AREA LAKES TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE OPEN WATERS OF LAKES
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
846 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WAS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST (LIGHTNING SOUTH OF UTS) THIS
EVENING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION...
DECIDED TO ADD SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT 00Z...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED BETWEEN AMA AND OKC. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A GREAT DEAL OF WIND SHEAR AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS ARE AROUND 8000
FT. IT WONT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET SOME HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. CLOSER TO THE
COAST...HELICITY VALUES ARE VERY HIGH AND IF ANY OF THE STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
00Z NAM 12 HAS DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AROUND
12Z THURSDAY. THINK THIS WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT AREA WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BAY CITY TO LIVINGSTON LINE. THE WINDOW FOR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS SMALL AND THIS IS A TOUGH CALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED
HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT WARMING TREND. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ANOTHER ISSUE AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS AOA 25 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THAT PROBLEM.

WILL UPDATE THE HWO AND HAVE NEW ZONES OUT BY 930 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008/

AVIATION...
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WAS GENERATING MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO BE
PUSHED OUT BY THE ONCOMING MOISTURE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 05 AND
09Z. AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD ALREADY FORMED AT THE FORECAST ISSUANCE
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM THE BIG
AIRPORTS SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST AFTER 12Z AND ENDING BETWEEN 15
AND 17Z. THE MAIN WEATHER ITEM AFTER THE SKIES CLEAR OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AIRPORTS.
EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO AFFECT KCLL...THE METRO HOUSTON
SITES...AND THE COASTAL SITES.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A WEAK S/WV AND A
CONFLUENT SFC FLOW WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING RAPIDLY
NORTHWEST ACROSS CWFA REFLECTING UPGLIDE AT 295-300 K SURFACE.
STILL QUITE DRY OVER REGION BUT LOWER LEVELS STARTING TO MOISTEN
UP FROM OUR SW ZONES TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH RETURN OF ONSHORE
FLOW. APPROACHING DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO
DESTABILIZE OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEST TO EAST
USHERING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DUE TO QUITE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS STRONGER WITH THIS
SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE LAST ONE THAT PASSED OVER TEXAS. QUITE
STRONG VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
WILL BE MORE EVIDENT DURING THIS EVENT WITH OUR REGION CLOSE TO RR
QUAD OF UPPER LEVEL JET. NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE COASTAL WATERS AND
AREAS NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY SE ZONES MAY GET STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO FROPA. STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS EVENT. WE SHALL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR HWOHGX. AFTER
FROPA WINDS WILL PICK UP PROBABLY TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MOST
SECTIONS. WIND ADVISORY IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND THIS WILL BE DECIDED BY FORECAST TEAM TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY OVER REGION. COOL AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN BELOW SEASONAL MIN TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S THIS WEEKEND. WE
SHALL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN (LOWER SIDE) SECOND HALF OF
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS REGION TUESDAY. 37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      50  58  34  63  45 /  60  50   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              52  64  37  62  45 /  50  70   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  65  44  59  53 /  50  70   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-311230-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
903 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3AM AND 10 AM...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS AND CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A VARIETY OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
INTENSIFY BY 3 AM. UNSEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AND COUPLED WITH TREMENDOUS WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FAVORS ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND WILL EXIT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY NOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THURSDAY MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL BE
QUITE TIGHT RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.