Tornado Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE MESO-SCALE FORCING OF EVENTS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST. DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...NEITHER THE GFS...RUC...NOR NAM. THE
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR KCLL AND KUTS AND POSSIBLY KCXO TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM KCXO AND THE BIG
AIRPORTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. WITH THE SUPERCELL AND
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WAS HELPING
TO GENERATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

40

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG A JUNCTION TO
COLLEGE STATION TO ALEXANDRIA LINE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
MENA TO ABILENE TO MARFA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH WHILE
THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WHERE IT IS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STORMS THEN MOVE E-SE ALONG THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH...CAPPING WILL POSE PROBLEMS. 850 TEMP AT
CRP IS 25 C AND 700 MB TEMPS ARE 13 C. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. RAISED POPS OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING FOR THE NORTH
HALF OF THE REGION. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 323 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 07Z FOR THE NORTHWEST PART
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AND ADDED SOME
SEVERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STRONG CAP AT CRP SHOULD
PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH. WILL UPDATE THE
AFD ONCE 00Z ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.  NEW ZONES ON THE STREET. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  60  78  57  85 /  60  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  64  80  58  85 /  60  40  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  70  78  67  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-150900-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WHARTON-
942 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TO

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER 10 PM...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

.DAY TWO...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE MORNING AND AREA
WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...
SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD END OVERNIGHT
IN THESE AREAS AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TXZ176-195>198-150900-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-MADISON-WASHINGTON-
942 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM...

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER 10 PM...MAINLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER
ROADS...SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

.DAY TWO...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONCENTRATED MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN THE MORNING AND AREA
WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...
SECONDARY ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD END OVERNIGHT
IN THESE AREAS AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
141 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH ZULCH             30.92N 96.11W
05/15/2008                   MADISON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 39

1242 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISONVILLE            30.95N 95.91W
05/15/2008                   MADISON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

1250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BEDIAS                  30.78N 95.95W
05/15/2008                   GRIMES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR PORTS DAMAGED

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOVELADY                31.13N 95.45W
05/15/2008                   HOUSTON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

47