Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT MCS STILL GOING STRONG AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SSE INTO OUR CWFA. THIS PROMPTED THE SEVERE TSRA
WATCH ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTN. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS WE WILL
KNOW SHORTLY HOW STRONG THE CAP REALLY IS. AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE
CURRENT TRENDS...THE WETTER/MORE ACTIVE 12Z NAM IS THE FAVORITE IN
THE SHORT TERM. AS SUCH HAVE UPPED POPS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW AS WE
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN. THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING
BATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO COME TO A
STOP OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR TOMORROW MODELS ARE
BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN (THIS ONE FROM THE EAST) RIGHT AOA
PEAK HEATING. STRONG TSRA ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.

THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE AN END TO ALL THE PCPN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE REGION. WARM/HUMID AND VERY LOW/NO
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
DISTINCT COLD POOL (TEMPS IN THE 60S) NOTED BEHIND THE INCOMING LINE
OF SHRA/TSTMS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP HEADED SWD INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EARLY EVNG HOURS. ASSUMING THE CURRENT MVMT REMAINS ABOUT
THE SAME THE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE UTS AREA AROUND
21Z...CLL-CXO-LIBERTY RIGHT AROUND 22Z...CALDWELL-IAH-WINNIE LINE
AROUND 23Z. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SVR WX WITH THE LINE...MORE OF
THE PULSE VARIETY. WINDS HOWEVER SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NNE AND BE
QUITE GUSTY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.

QUESTION IS IF/WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS LATER THIS EVENING &
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING ANY THUNDER SOUTH OF
IAH BUT MAY NEED TO IN THE 00Z TAFS BASED ON LATER TRENDS. PRECIP
SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AND END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT SO MAY
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOP.

THOUGH ITS BEYOND THE CURRENT 18Z TAFS...IT LOOKS LIKE TSTMS MAY
AGAIN POP UP ACROSS SE TX LATE WED AFTN. APPEARS LEFT OVER BOUNDARY
FROM CURRENT STORMS OR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA
COULD BE THE FOCUS. LATE AFTN FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V...
WHICH WOULD POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORMS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STILL MOVING SWD INTO SE TX. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO IF IT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST ALONG/E OF GLS, OR
IF THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
OUTFLOWS. IF IT DOES INDEED MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST IT
SHOULDNT BE UNTIL AROUND 7 PM BASED ON CURRENT MVMT. CURRENTLY
PLAN ON GOING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 430PM PACKAGE FOR
TONIGHT AND LET THE SWING SHIFT AMEND IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD KICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT - BUT LESS THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS SO WILL NOT HOIST THE CAUTION FLAGS. GRADIENT REALLY
SLACKENS WED AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS A BIT CLOSER. LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  91  72  92  72 /  30  30  30  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  91  72  91  73 /  30  30  30  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  87  76  86  77 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-282100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
351 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT DAYTIME
HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAY TWO...WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
COMBINED WITH LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE
STORMS BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.