Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
254 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING TO HARRIS AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES...THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONDENSED.

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW HARRIS COUNTY TO BETWEEN CORRIGAN
AND SEGNO MOVING SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLUSTER WILL
PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INITIATING STRONGER
CONVECTION. WITH PRONOUNCED RAIN COOLED/CLOUD COVER REGION BEHIND
ACTIVITY...CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE THIS EVENING. IR LOOP
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INITIATING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PICK UP SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
INDICATING ENERGY TRANSLATING SE TO OUR REGION FRIDAY. WE
INDICATED HIGHER POPS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER
POPS SPREADING DURING AFTERNOON. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES OVER OUR REGION AND MAY BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS WEEKEND DUE TO LOWER THICKNESS
VALUES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY. NOTE
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE EAST OF OUR REGION WILL RETROGRADE
GRADUALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT THIS SHEAR ZONE ALBEIT WEAKER MAY BE OVER OVER OUR
REGION NEXT WEEK.
37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  93  73  93  72 /  20  30  30  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  74  94  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  78  90  78 /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1008 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201515-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
1008 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS MORING THROUGH TONIGHT

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS UP INTO THE HUNTSVILLE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON AND BY MID AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS COLLIDES
WITH THE SEABREEZE. WITH THIS COLLISION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS WILL INCREASE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.

IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAY TWO...FRIDAY

THE DAILY REGENERATION OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH VICINITY
WIND SHIFT BOUNDARIES CREATED BY LOCAL SEA AND GULF BREEZES...PREVIOUS
DAYS STORMS...AND SOUTHERN-MOVING NORTHERN TEXAS STORM SYSTEMS...WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL JUST BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO COOL DOWN AFTERNOON
HEAT...A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY MINOR
FLOODING FROM HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH FOUR...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

A NEARING COOL FRONT...BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG OR NEAR THE
LOUISIANA TEXAS COASTLINE...WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS RAINFALL. IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE HOUSTON GALVESTON
AREA...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. SLOWER STORM
MOTION...OR NEAR EAST TO WEST MOVEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...MAY
CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

DAYS FIVE THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AT THIS TIME...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEALY TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON.

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