Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE CENTER OF IKE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...WE ARE STILL
SEEING A FAIR (BUT DECREASING) AMOUNT OF PCPN COVERAGE OVER OUR
NRN ZONES ATTM. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING ALL TROPICAL ADVISORIES
WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE BUT WILL RETAIN WIND ADVISORIES THRU THIS
EVENING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM. ALONG THOSE LINE WILL
ALSO KEEP THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...
THIS RESPITE LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO IND-
ICATE A GOOD CHC OF POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT (THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OF LATE). LINGERING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/
A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS/ADDITIONAL AFTN HEATING WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SH/TSRAS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATTM
GOING TO GO WITH FROPA OVER THE NRN AREAS AROUND 3-5PM THEN OFF
THE COAST AROUND 6-9PM. THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKED WITH
LATER RUNS AS IKE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. PROGS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK INDICATE A FAIRLY NICE GO OF THINGS AS A DRIER/COOLER AIR-
MASS PREVAILS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  88  70  85  61 /  60  50  50  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  88  72  84  64 /  60  60  60  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  76  82  70 /  50  60  60  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HOUSTON...MADISON...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-140000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
455 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HURRICANE IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON AROUND 2 AM THIS
MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING AS IKE
TRACKS TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 12 MPH. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH IKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TORNADO THREAT WITH SOME OF THE
RAINBANDS AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS ON IKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF IKE WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
351 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     HURRICANE        FREEPORT                28.95N  95.36W
09/13/2008                   BRAZORIA           TX   TIDE GAUGE

            WIND GUST OF 83 MPH AT FREEPORT TIDE GAUGE

0215 AM     HURRICANE        HOBBY AIRPORT           29.64N  95.28W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   ASOS

            KHOU REPORTED 83 MPH WIND GUST

0220 AM     HURRICANE        PASADENA                29.66N  95.15W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            74 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED IN PASADENA

0229 AM     HURRICANE        HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   ASOS

            KIAH REPORTED A 64 MPH GUST

0242 AM     HURRICANE        ANAHUAC                 29.76N  94.68W
09/13/2008                   CHAMBERS           TX   STORM CHASER

            97 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT ANAHUAC AIRPORT.

0245 AM     HURRICANE        ANAHUAC                 29.76N  94.68W
09/13/2008                   CHAMBERS           TX   STORM CHASER

            102 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT ANAUAC BY UAH MOBILE
            RADAR TEAM

0254 AM     HURRICANE        HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            80 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED ON UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON MAIN
            CAMPUS

0330 AM     HURRICANE        20 E GALVESTON          29.23N  94.56W
09/13/2008                   GMZ355             TX   BUOY

            BOUY 42035 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH WITH 81
            MPH GUSTS

0400 AM     HURRICANE        HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   ASOS

            KIAH REPORTED SUSTAINED 53 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 82
            MPH

0400 AM     HURRICANE        20 E GALVESTON          29.23N  94.56W
09/13/2008                   GMZ355             TX   BUOY

            BOUY 42035 REPORTED 85 MPH GUST

0420 AM     HURRICANE        GALVESTON               29.23N  94.89W
09/13/2008                   GALVESTON          TX   TIDE GAUGE

            GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 53
            MPH WITH GUSTS 78 MPH

0500 AM     HURRICANE        DICKINSON               29.45N  95.07W
09/13/2008                   GALVESTON          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 72 MPH AT HGX NWS OFFICE

0610 AM     HURRICANE        HOBBY AIRPORT           29.64N  95.28W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOBBY OBSERVER ESTIMATED 74 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING
            TO 92 MPH

0626 AM     HURRICANE        TOMBALL                 30.10N  95.62W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF COLLASPE OF A NURSING HOME NEAR TOMBALL.

0820 AM     HURRICANE        MISSION BEND            29.69N  95.66W
09/13/2008                   FORT BEND          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFS DAMAGED...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED....IN
            MISSION BEND

0936 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

1115 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TOMBALL                 30.10N  95.62W
09/13/2008                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTS 12.10 IN OF PRECIP IN TOMBALL
            AND MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX0800085 HGX0800099 HGX0800100 HGX0800103 HGX0800101
HGX0800102 HGX0800104 HGX0800105 HGX0800107 HGX0800108 HGX0800106
HGX0800109 HGX0800111 HGX0800116 HGX0800113 HGX0800114 HGX0800115

MCKINNEY