Wind Advisory 12, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 191318
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
318 AM HST SAT JUL 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED...
.WINDS AT HALEAKALA SUMMIT ON MAUI HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.


HIZ022-191430-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-080719T1400Z/
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
318 AM HST SAT JUL 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$
H LAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
338 AM HST FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE
WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST FREQUENT
OVER WINDWARD AREAS DURING NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
TRADE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT KEEPING THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

BESIDES THE INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS...THE WEATHER HAS TURNED TO A
WETTER PATTERN LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW MOISTURE RIDING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS. RAIN
GAGE REPORTS OVERNIGHT HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...SINCE A
LOT OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RACING BY UNDER THE BRISK TRADE FLOW.
THE FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASE
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS
AND THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT OVER INTO
LEEWARD SECTIONS AS WELL. THE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE IN
PART BY A TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH HAS KEPT THE TRADE WIND INVERSION A
BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CAPPING
LAYER AROUND 11 THOUSAND FEET...WHICH ALLOWS CLOUDS TO GROW TALLER
RESULTING IN ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE SPEED AT WHICH
THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING HAS NOT CAUSED ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

FORECAST MODELS DO SHOW THE TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT DEVELOPS A NEW LOW WEST OF THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS A BIT UNSTABLE SO SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL FOR JULY. A WEAK CONSENSUS IN THE
FORECAST MODELS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE IT
TRICKY TO DETERMINE WHEN THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL AFFECT THE
ISLANDS.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE SHOWERS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ELIDA
MOVES WEST OVER THE ISLANDS. THAT COULD MAKE THE WEATHER WETTER
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTING THE MOVEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF OLD TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THIS FAR
OUT SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND. SOUTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE...BUT SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

ELAU