Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE OCT 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND A WEAKENING FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT UNTIL THEN...ALLOWING
LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR MAUKA
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER TRADE WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP...WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR MORE SHOWERS AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HAZY CONDITIONS BEING
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER WORDING WAS ALSO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR KAUAI AND OAHU BASED ON LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS PUSHING A LARGE AREA OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WITH US INTO
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THICK HIGH CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
EXTENT OF AFTERNOON CLOUD AND SHOWER BUILDUPS ACROSS MAUKA AREAS.
WHEN TRADE WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ONCE AGAIN.

THE TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN ISLANDS LIES SOUTHEAST OF A WEAKENING
SHEAR LINE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS SHEAR LINE
WILL REACH KAUAI WEDNESDAY AND MERGE WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SYSTEM SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF
A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SO THE SHEAR LINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY WET. THE FOLLOWING HIGH FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN TRADE WIND FLOW AND A TRADE WIND
DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.
TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN SLACKEN
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE HIGH WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEW SHORT PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SWINGS AROUND TO A MORE NORTH
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR EXPOSED SHORELINES ON KAUAI AND OAHU. LATER
TODAY...PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A SMALLER SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND
CHANNELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND
NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU.

&&

UPDATE...BURKE
PREV DISCUSSION...POWELL
MARINE...BURKE

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