High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
320 AM HST MON FEB 11 2008

.UPDATE...
THE WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE BLOWING JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MILES AN HOUR. GFS MODEL PROJECTION HAS THE
WINDS NEAR 30 THROUGH THIS MORNING...TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SENSORS THERE.

&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE TRADES WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING AND LIMITING THE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAIN A COMFORTABLE TRADE
WIND BREEZE ACROSS HAWAII NEI THROUGH FRIDAY. UNDER THIS
REGIME...LOOK FOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS TO GET MOST OF THE
SHOWERS WITH LIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES WILL
BE LIMITED TO MODERATE AT MOST DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE BEING ONLY A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
PASSING FAR NORTH WILL KEEP THE RIDGE FROM VENTURING TOO FAR AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS. THE TRADES WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS A 1023 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH PASSES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. FROM THAT POINT ON THE WINDS TURNS LIGHTER AND
THE DIRECTION BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH SUNDAY. IN OTHER WORDS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE KAUAI END OF THE STATE. THE COMFORT LEVEL MAY NOT BE
AS GOOD WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE VOG. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE STRONG THUS LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS TREND.

SO FAR THE WEATHER IS BEHAVING QUITE NICELY WITH A FEW MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS PEPPERING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. HILO AREA OF
THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN THE WETTEST AT 13 HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH
RECORDED AT PAHOA AND A TENTH AT WAIAKE UKA. WEATHER RADAR IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. A COUPLE OF THE SHOWERS ARE
SPILLING ACROSS PUNA DISTRICT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORE RUNNERS FROM THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS HERE WITH SWELL HEIGHTS
OF 5 FEET AND PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS THIS HOUR. THE NEXT NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL BE LARGER THAN THIS ONE...AND IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS CURRENTLY IN THE WORKS...FROM A STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF
HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND
OAHU...AND NORTH SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI...TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

H. LAU