Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT FEB 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO A STRONG HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE WET TRADE
WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.

&&

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS
ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG THE UPSLOPE REGION JUST INLAND FROM HILO. THEY ARE BEING FED
BY AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE EAST IN THE TRADES.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
RESULTING RUNOFF CONTINUES. RADAR SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS JUST EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THAT ARE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE.

THE SMALLER ISLANDS WILL ALSO SEE RAINFALL TODAY. AT THE
MOMENT...WINDWARD MAUI APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TARGET FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WARMING TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N 149W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS STRONG HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. THESE TRADES WILL ALSO PUMP IN ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM HIGH ABOVE THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WET WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS OF GALE FORCE
IN THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE HAWAIIAN WATERS...WITH 30 KT IN
THE REMAINING CHANNELS AND 25 KT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS AT THE KAILUA
BAY BUOY ARE 11 FEET AND 10 SECOND THIS MORNING. DUE TO THE STRONG
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE...THE WAVEWATCH
III MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE EAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABOVE NORMAL SURF ALONG THE AFFECTED SHORES AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SUNDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 600 PM HST TODAY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST TODAY FOR THE REMAINING
HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

HOUSTON